Luke's media column 2025-07-04 Heat: 12610
This article analyzes the recent strategic layout of the U.S. in the fiscal and digital asset fields. By promoting large-scale fiscal expansion through the OBBB Act while establishing a regulatory framework for digital assets, the U.S. is attempting to consolidate its global financial and technological hegemony. Fiscal stimulus triggers currency devaluation, creating long-term benefits for hard assets like Bitcoin, while the regulatory moat attracts capital and innovation, ensuring the dollar's dominance in the digital age.
Summary generated by Mars AI.
Written by: Luke, Mars Finance
In Washington, seemingly unrelated events often intertwine on a deeper level, sketching a grand strategic picture. In early July, as public attention focused on the U.S. House's 'Independence Day gift' to President Trump—a massive fiscal bill dubbed the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' (OBBB)—another quieter yet equally profound revolution was quietly brewing on Capitol Hill—a series of legislative proposals targeting digital assets are being placed on the agenda at an unprecedented pace.
These two seemingly parallel trajectories—one of radical fiscal expansion and the other of precise regulatory reconstruction—are not coincidental. Together, they constitute a carefully designed 'Washington conspiracy': by creating a tremendous wave in the macro economy while building a regulatory moat tailored for the U.S., it aims to establish an unshakable hegemonic position in the global digital asset race. This is not just about tax cuts or regulation; it is a gamble concerning the future dominance of the financial system.
'The One Big Beautiful Bill' economic engine and the debt black hole.
Structurally, the OBBB Act is a carefully designed duet. On one hand, it introduces unprecedented tax cuts. Critics label this act as an extreme 'robbing the poor to pay the rich': it permanently locks the corporate tax rate at 21% and provides high-income individuals with nearly $6,000 in annual tax savings. On the other hand, the cost of all this is a brutal reduction in social welfare programs. About 600,000 households will see their food stamps shrink by $100 a month, while the Medicaid program will be directly cut by $1.2 trillion over the next decade.
The controversy at the heart of this game lies in its real fiscal costs. The White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) uses a 'dynamic scoring' model, insisting that tax cuts will stimulate economic growth, generating enough revenue to offset the costs. However, this optimistic forecast stands in stark contrast to the conclusions of nearly all non-partisan analytical institutions.
The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that this bill will add a net $3.3 trillion to federal debt over the next decade. Think tanks such as the center-left Brookings Institution and the libertarian Cato Institute have reached similar conclusions, asserting that its impact on GDP is negligible and completely insufficient to offset the massive debt costs. Goldman Sachs economists have bluntly stated that any slight growth momentum from the bill will be entirely offset by the economic drag from the tariffs implemented by the government during the same period.
The academic debate over scoring models effectively obscures a more fundamental and undeniable truth: regardless of how it is calculated, the U.S. has clearly chosen a path of stimulating the economy through large-scale, unfunded fiscal expansion. This is not an ordinary policy adjustment; it is a paradigm shift in fiscal posture. The real economic reality behind it is that a debt-driven super-stimulus cycle has already begun.
The Inevitable Rise
Such a scale of fiscal expansion will inevitably resonate in the monetary realm. A multi-trillion dollar hole in new national debt means an equal scale of monetary expansion is needed to finance it. This will inevitably lead to the devaluation of fiat currency, creating a strong and structural long-term benefit for scarce, non-sovereign hard assets like Bitcoin.
This logical chain has been vividly articulated by two thought leaders in the crypto world—Michael Saylor and Arthur Hayes. Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, likens currency devaluation to a 'leakage of economic energy.' In his view, Bitcoin is the engineering solution to this problem, representing 'for the first time in human history, you can tightly bind economic energy to individuals... without having to live in fear.' Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes that government spending and fiat currency creation are the fundamental fuels of the crypto bull market. 'Printing money is their only answer,' Hayes asserts, predicting that the massive stimulus from the Trump administration will serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin prices to surge to a million dollars.
These views are supported by macro data. There is a significant positive correlation between the global broad money supply (M2) and Bitcoin prices. Historical data shows that when global M2 rises, surplus capital flows into 'risk assets' like cryptocurrencies. The passage of the OBBB Act essentially announces the arrival of an era of 'Fiscal Dominance.' The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will have to serve the government's fiscal needs by purchasing newly issued bonds for financing—this is essentially debt monetization and what Hayes describes as 'Stealth QE.'
Therefore, the OBBB Act is not just a tax bill; it is a clear signal: the U.S. has chosen to manage its heavy debt burden through currency devaluation. This shifts the logic of investing in Bitcoin from cyclical speculation to a long-term, structural necessity.
Game Rules: A completely new regulatory framework.
If the tremendous waves in the macro economy are the first step of the 'conspiracy,' then the subsequent regulatory blitzkrieg is the second step. Washington is synchronously advancing a carefully designed regulatory combination aimed not at stifling but at building a solid 'regulatory moat' for the U.S. digital asset ecosystem, thereby attracting capital and talent globally and shaping the industry landscape according to American preferences and advantages.
The first pillar of this regulatory reconstruction is the (GENIUS Act), aimed at creating a legal framework tailored for stablecoins. This act establishes a comprehensive federal regulatory framework for 'payment stablecoins,' strictly defining the scope of issuers and requiring reserves to be backed 1:1 by cash or high-quality liquid assets such as short-term U.S. Treasury securities. This not only provides an advantage to traditional bank-dominated tracks but also cleverly directs trillions of private savings into the U.S. Treasury market, creating a large buyer base for the new debt generated by the OBBB Act.
The second pillar is the (CLARITY Act), aimed at addressing the ambiguities in regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC. The act creates a clear path for digital assets to be classified as 'digital commodities' once their networks are sufficiently decentralized, thus allowing CFTC regulation. This paves the way for the compliance of mainstream crypto assets like Ethereum, significantly reducing the legal risks for institutional entry.
The final pillar of the regulatory framework is the (Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act). This act explicitly prohibits the issuance of retail central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) through legislative means, declaring to the world that the U.S. is committed to a private, permissionless financial future rather than a 'China-style surveillance tool.' This strategic choice supports an ecosystem led by the private sector, built on principles of openness and freedom, to compete with China's digital yuan, ensuring that the dollar retains its global dominance in its new digital proxy form.
The market's judgment: Capital flows and future trajectories.
As Washington's macro and regulatory blueprint unfolds, the market has begun to vote with real money. However, as many investors fear, all recent policy benefits seem to have been realized. After the short-term boost to U.S. stocks from the OBBB Act, the market may face a period of tumultuous adjustment due to the pressure of massive deficits.
On-chain data and market sentiment analysis.
The current market is digesting a series of complex signals. Although surface market sentiment indicators show greed (the fear and greed index has risen to 73), deep on-chain data reveals a more mature and stable picture. According to Glassnode's analysis, despite experiencing severe volatility, the market's bull structure remains solid, forming a robust structural support between $93,000 and $100,000.
Despite the profit-taking brought about by rising prices, data shows that selling pressure is easing, and the behavior patterns of long-term holders (LTH) are shifting back to 'HODL' (holding long-term). Notably, the supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has reached an all-time high, which is extremely unusual in the late stages of a bull market, indicating their strong belief in the future. This divergence between surface sentiment (greed) and underlying data (calm) is precisely a sign of a maturing, institutionally driven market. The market is building a strong support base, patiently absorbing selling pressure, and awaiting the comprehensive rollout of macro and regulatory policies.
Corporate Balance Sheet 2.0
The 'corporate playbook' pioneered by MicroStrategy, using publicly traded companies as tools to gain exposure to crypto assets, is now entering its 2.0 version. With the dual tailwinds of macro and regulation, companies are beginning to expand their sights from Bitcoin to other strategically valuable digital commodities, particularly Ethereum.
The stock price of crypto mining company Bitmine Immersion (BMNR) surged over 130% in a single day, catalyzed by the company's announcement of completing a $250 million private financing round, clearly aimed at purchasing Ethereum as its core inventory reserve asset. Notable crypto bull and Fundstrat founder Tom Lee took over as the new chairman of the company, injecting significant market credibility into this strategy. Coincidentally, Canadian fintech company Mogo Inc. (MOGO) also announced a $50 million Bitcoin inventory reserve authorization, making Bitcoin the 'company's threshold return' for all capital allocation decisions.
This is a perfect positive feedback loop. The CLARITY Act de-risked Ethereum, making BMNR's ETH inventory reserve strategy possible. BMNR's actions, in turn, became a massive proof of concept, demonstrating the importance of the CLARITY Act. We are witnessing the birth of a new class of corporate balance sheet assets. The market is beginning to distinguish between 'Bitcoin as a store of value' and 'Ethereum as a decentralized computing platform/settlement layer.' The regulatory machinations in Washington provide a framework for both to coexist and thrive in compliant entities' portfolios.
Conclusion: Racing in the new paradigm of American crypto.
In summary, inflationary fiscal blitz, a regulatory framework aimed at legitimizing and guiding the industry, and a strategic rejection of national control over currency are not coincidences. This is a well-thought-out 'Washington conspiracy' designed to consolidate America's leadership in the next generation of financial and technological revolutions.
The U.S. is choosing to manage its debt through inflation, creating permanent structural demand for hard assets. At the same time, it is building a regulatory moat that incorporates digital assets into its dominion. It provides a clear path to legalization for the broader Web3 ecosystem, ensuring that the next generation of the Internet is built on U.S. soil. More importantly, it clearly chooses the path of economic freedom and personal privacy over state surveillance, giving it a significant advantage in the global ideological competition against authoritarian opponents.
The market has grasped this signal and responded with mature consolidation and strategic corporate adoption that transcends Bitcoin. For global investors, developers, and builders, the message from Washington is crystal clear: the game has begun, and the U.S. is determined to win. A globally attractive macro and regulatory environment tailored for digital assets is forming in the U.S. This gamble, while fraught with risk, has a clear goal—attract global capital, nurture local innovation, and ensure that the dollar continues as the undisputed global reserve currency through its new, private, decentralized digital proxies, racing into the 21st century.
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances and comply with the relevant laws and regulations of their country and region.
