Luke's media column 2025-07-04 Heat: 12610
This article analyzes the recent strategic layout of the United States in the fields of finance and digital assets. By promoting large-scale fiscal expansion through the 'One Big Beautiful Bill,' while formulating a regulatory framework for digital assets, the U.S. is attempting to consolidate its global financial and technological hegemony. Fiscal stimulus triggers currency devaluation, creating long-term benefits for hard assets like Bitcoin, while the regulatory moat attracts capital and innovation, ensuring the dollar's dominant status in the digital age.
Summary generated by Mars AI
Written by: Luke, Mars Finance
In Washington, seemingly unrelated events often intertwine at a deeper level, sketching a grand strategic picture. At the beginning of July, as public attention centered on the U.S. House of Representatives' 'Independence Day gift' to President Trump—the massive fiscal bill dubbed the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' (OBBB)—another quieter yet equally profound revolution was brewing on Capitol Hill—a series of legislative proposals targeting digital assets were being placed on the agenda at an unprecedented pace.
These two seemingly parallel trajectories—one of radical fiscal expansion and the other of precise regulatory restructuring—are not coincidental. They together constitute a meticulously designed 'Washington conspiracy': by creating a massive macroeconomic wave while constructing a set of regulatory moats tailored for the United States, it aims to establish an unshakable hegemonic position in the global digital asset race. This is not merely about tax cuts or regulation; it is a gamble concerning the dominance of the future financial system.
The Economic Engine and Debt Black Hole of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill'
Structurally, the OBBB bill is a carefully designed duet. On one hand, it introduces unprecedented tax cuts. Critics have dubbed this bill an extreme 'Robin Hood in reverse': it locks the corporate tax rate permanently at 21% and provides nearly $6,000 in annual tax savings for high-income individuals. On the other hand, the cost of all this falls on brutal cuts to social welfare programs. Approximately 600,000 families will see their food stamp benefits shrink by $100 per month, while Medicaid will be directly cut by $1.2 trillion over the next decade.
The core controversy of this game lies in its true fiscal cost. The White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) employs a 'dynamic scoring' model, insisting that tax cuts will stimulate economic growth, generating enough revenue to offset costs. However, this optimistic forecast contrasts sharply with the conclusions of nearly all nonpartisan analytical agencies.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the bill will net an increase of $3.3 trillion in federal debt over the next decade. Think tanks such as the center-left Brookings Institution and the libertarian Cato Institute have reached similar conclusions, suggesting that its impact on GDP is minimal and entirely insufficient to offset its massive debt costs. Economists at Goldman Sachs have bluntly stated that any slight growth momentum generated by the bill will be completely offset by the economic drag from the tariff policies concurrently implemented by the government.
The academic debate over scoring models actually masks a more fundamental and undeniable truth: regardless of how it is calculated, the U.S. has clearly chosen a path of stimulating the economy through large-scale, unfunded fiscal expansion. This is not an ordinary policy adjustment but a paradigm shift in fiscal posture. The underlying economic reality is that a debt-driven super-stimulus cycle has begun.
Inevitable Rise
Such a scale of fiscal expansion will inevitably resonate in the monetary domain. A multi-trillion-dollar increase in national debt means that a corresponding scale of monetary expansion is required to finance it. This will inevitably lead to the devaluation of fiat currency, creating a powerful and structural long-term benefit for scarce, non-sovereign hard assets like Bitcoin.
This logical chain has been articulated brilliantly by two thought leaders in the crypto world—Michael Saylor and Arthur Hayes. Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, likens currency devaluation to a form of 'leakage of economic energy.' In his view, Bitcoin is the engineering solution to this problem, representing 'for the first time in human history, you can bind economic energy closely to individuals... without having to live in fear.' Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes that government spending and fiat currency creation are the fundamental fuel for a crypto bull market. 'Printing money is their only answer,' Hayes asserts, predicting that the massive stimulus from the Trump administration will catalyze Bitcoin's price surge to one million dollars.
These views are supported by macro data. There is a significant positive correlation between the global broad money supply (M2) and Bitcoin prices. Historical data shows that when global M2 rises, excess capital flows into 'risk assets' like cryptocurrencies. The passage of the OBBB bill effectively heralds the arrival of the 'Fiscal Dominance' era. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will have to serve the government's fiscal needs by purchasing newly issued bonds to finance them—this is essentially debt monetization, as well as what Hayes describes as 'Stealth QE.'
Thus, the OBBB bill is not merely a tax bill; it is a clear signal: the United States has chosen to manage its heavy debt burden through currency devaluation. This transforms the logic of investing in Bitcoin from a cyclical speculative behavior into a long-term, structural necessity.
Game Rules: A Whole New Regulatory Framework
If the massive macroeconomic wave is the first step of the 'conspiracy,' then the subsequent regulatory blitzkrieg is the second step. Washington is simultaneously advancing a carefully designed regulatory combination, aimed not at stifling but at constructing a solid 'regulatory moat' for the U.S. digital asset ecosystem, thus attracting capital and talent globally and shaping the industry landscape according to American preferences and advantages.
The first pillar of this regulatory overhaul is the (GENIUS Act), which aims to create a legal framework tailored for stablecoins. This bill establishes a comprehensive federal regulatory framework for 'payment stablecoins,' strictly limits the scope of issuers, and requires reserves to be backed on a 1:1 basis by high-quality liquid assets such as cash or short-term U.S. Treasury securities. This not only provides an advantage for the traditional bank-led track but, as Arthur Hayes pointed out, cleverly channels trillions in private savings into the U.S. Treasury market, creating a massive buyer pool for the new debt generated by the OBBB bill.
The second pillar is the (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) (CLARITY Act), which aims to clarify the regulatory responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC. The bill creates a clear path for digital assets to be classified as 'digital commodities' under CFTC regulation once their networks are sufficiently decentralized. This paves the way for mainstream crypto assets like Ethereum to achieve compliance, significantly lowering the legal risks for institutional entry.
The final pillar of the regulatory framework is the (Anti-CBDC Monitoring National Bill). This bill explicitly prohibits the issuance of retail Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) through legislation, declaring to the world that the United States is committed to a private, permissionless financial future rather than a 'Chinese-style surveillance tool.' This strategic choice aims to support a privately-led ecosystem built on principles of openness and freedom to compete with China's digital yuan, thereby ensuring that the dollar, in its new digital proxy form, continues to maintain its global dominance.
Market Judgment: Capital Flows and Future Trajectories
As Washington's macro and regulatory blueprint unfolds, the market has begun to vote with real money. However, as many investors are concerned, recent policy benefits seem to have been fully realized. Following the short-term boost from the OBBB bill, the market may face a volatile adjustment period due to the pressure of massive deficits.
On-chain data and market sentiment analysis
The current market is digesting a series of complex signals. While surface market sentiment indicators show greed (the fear and greed index has risen to 73), in-depth on-chain data reveals a more mature and stable picture. According to Glassnode's analysis, despite the market's extreme volatility, its bull market structure remains solid, forming a strong structural support between $93,000 and $100,000.
Despite the price increases prompting profit-taking, data show that selling pressure is easing, and the behavior patterns of long-term holders (LTH) are shifting back to 'HODL' (hold long). Notably, the supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has reached an all-time high, which is quite unusual in the later stages of a bull market, indicating their strong belief in the future. This divergence between surface sentiment (greed) and underlying data (calm) is precisely a sign of a maturing, institution-driven market. The market is building a strong support base, patiently absorbing selling pressure, and awaiting the comprehensive implementation of macro and regulatory policies.
Corporate Balance Sheet 2.0
The 'corporate playbook' pioneered by MicroStrategy, which positions publicly traded companies as tools for gaining exposure to crypto assets, is now ushering in version 2.0. Under the dual tailwinds of macro and regulatory factors, companies are beginning to extend their gaze from Bitcoin to other strategically valuable digital commodities, especially Ethereum.
The stock price of crypto mining company Bitmine Immersion (BMNR) surged over 130% in a single day, catalyzed by the company's announcement of completing a $250 million private placement, aimed at purchasing Ethereum as its core inventory reserve asset. Well-known crypto bull and Fundstrat founder Tom Lee has taken on the role of the company’s new chairman, adding significant market credibility to this strategy. Coincidentally, Canadian fintech company Mogo Inc. (MOGO) also announced a $50 million Bitcoin inventory reserve authorization, making Bitcoin the 'company's hurdle return rate' for all capital allocation decisions.
This is a perfect positive feedback loop. The CLARITY Act de-risked Ethereum, making BMNR's ETH inventory reserve strategy possible. BMNR's actions, in turn, serve as a huge proof of concept, validating the importance of the CLARITY Act. We are witnessing the birth of a new asset class on corporate balance sheets. The market is beginning to distinguish between 'Bitcoin as a store of value' and 'Ethereum as a decentralized computing platform/settlement layer.' Washington's regulatory conspiracy provides a framework for both to coexist and thrive in compliant entities' portfolios.
Conclusion: Galloping in the New Paradigm of U.S. Crypto
In summary, the inflationary fiscal blitzkrieg, a regulatory framework aimed at legitimizing and guiding the industry, and a strategic rejection of state control over currency, are not coincidental. This is a well-thought-out 'Washington conspiracy' designed to consolidate America's leadership in the next generation of financial and technological revolutions.
The United States is choosing to manage its debt through inflation, creating a permanent structural demand for hard assets. At the same time, it is building a regulatory moat to incorporate digital assets into its dominant trajectory. It provides a clear path to legitimization for the broader Web3 ecosystem, ensuring that the next generation of the internet is built on U.S. soil. More importantly, while doing all this, it has clearly chosen the path of economic freedom and personal privacy over state surveillance, giving it a strong advantage over authoritarian rivals in the global ideological competition.
The market has grasped this signal, responding with mature consolidation and strategic corporate adoption that transcends Bitcoin. For global investors, developers, and builders, the message coming from Washington could not be clearer: the game has begun, and the U.S. aims to win it. A globally attractive macro and regulatory environment tailored for digital assets is taking shape in the U.S. This gamble, while fraught with risks, has a clear goal—attracting global capital, fostering domestic innovation, and ensuring that the dollar continues to function as the undisputed global reserve currency through its new, private, decentralized digital proxy in the 21st century.
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances and comply with relevant laws and regulations in their country or region.
