Crypto Total Market Cap excluding BTC, ETH and Top 10 (on TradingView it is CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3).
If the Cup & Handle pattern on Weekly and Monthly is confirmed and the target reaches $1.99 trillion, from ~$830 trillion now, we are talking about an increase of approximately 2.4x of the entire non-BTC/ETH/Top10 segment.
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⚙️ Working hypothesis
Let's rely on the following simplified distribution of the capital that would enter:
• 90% to projects in the TOP 200
• 10% to projects outside the TOP 200 (low caps, shitcoins, etc)
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🔍 What does it mean for the TOP 200?
1. Total estimated inflow to TOP 200:
• 90% of new $1.16 trillion = ~$1.044 trillion
• So, the capital in TOP 200 would increase from ~$830 trillion to $1.874 trillion
2. Average capitalization growth for TOP 200:
• (1.874B / 830B) = ~2.26x on average
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📈 Realistic Xs for TOP 200 coins
On average, we could see a 2.2x – 2.5x growth from capital infusion alone, but we need to take into account:
⚡ Additional effects:
• Positive reflexivity: Growth attracts more attention and retail capital, so it amplifies.
• Low-liquidity tokens: Good projects with low circulating supply (e.g. AEVO, RAY, JOE, etc.) can grow 5–10x even if the market average is only 2.5x.
• Narrative-based pumps: If a sub-sector (AI, RWAs, L2s, memes, etc.) becomes “hot”, projects in it can generate 10–30x.
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🔥 Examples of similar bull market behavior:
• In 2021, when TOTAL3 grew from 100B to 1,200B (12x), we saw:
• SOLANA – 20x
• MATIC – 40x
• AXS – 100x
• FTM, RUNE, SAND, GALA – all made between 10x and 100x
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🧠 Conclusion
• If the Cup & Handle pattern is validated, and TOTAL3 reaches ~$1.99 trillion, it is reasonable to see 2–3x average growth for projects in the TOP 200.
• Speculative, undervalued or strong narrative projects can go 5x–20x+, even within the TOP 200.
• The distribution will be uneven: coins with hype, utility or “cult following” will capture disproportionately more capital.