Crypto Total Market Cap excluding BTC, ETH and Top 10 (on TradingView it is CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3).

If the Cup & Handle pattern on Weekly and Monthly is confirmed and the target reaches $1.99 trillion, from ~$830 trillion now, we are talking about an increase of approximately 2.4x of the entire non-BTC/ETH/Top10 segment.

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⚙️ Working hypothesis

Let's rely on the following simplified distribution of the capital that would enter:

• 90% to projects in the TOP 200

• 10% to projects outside the TOP 200 (low caps, shitcoins, etc)

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🔍 What does it mean for the TOP 200?

1. Total estimated inflow to TOP 200:

• 90% of new $1.16 trillion = ~$1.044 trillion

• So, the capital in TOP 200 would increase from ~$830 trillion to $1.874 trillion

2. Average capitalization growth for TOP 200:

• (1.874B / 830B) = ~2.26x on average

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📈 Realistic Xs for TOP 200 coins

On average, we could see a 2.2x – 2.5x growth from capital infusion alone, but we need to take into account:

⚡ Additional effects:

• Positive reflexivity: Growth attracts more attention and retail capital, so it amplifies.

• Low-liquidity tokens: Good projects with low circulating supply (e.g. AEVO, RAY, JOE, etc.) can grow 5–10x even if the market average is only 2.5x.

• Narrative-based pumps: If a sub-sector (AI, RWAs, L2s, memes, etc.) becomes “hot”, projects in it can generate 10–30x.

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🔥 Examples of similar bull market behavior:

• In 2021, when TOTAL3 grew from 100B to 1,200B (12x), we saw:

• SOLANA – 20x

• MATIC – 40x

• AXS – 100x

• FTM, RUNE, SAND, GALA – all made between 10x and 100x

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🧠 Conclusion

• If the Cup & Handle pattern is validated, and TOTAL3 reaches ~$1.99 trillion, it is reasonable to see 2–3x average growth for projects in the TOP 200.

• Speculative, undervalued or strong narrative projects can go 5x–20x+, even within the TOP 200.

• The distribution will be uneven: coins with hype, utility or “cult following” will capture disproportionately more capital.