🔹 FED: Staying put, but the wind is blowing cold

The week was dominated by an apparently neutral decision from the Fed – interest rates remained unchanged at 4.25–4.50%, but Powell highlighted persistent risks from service inflation and Trump’s tariffs.

👉 Translation: interest rate cuts are not coming anytime soon. Markets will have to breathe on their own for a while.

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🔹 INFLATION: Falling, but not enough

• Core CPI: still at +0.2% monthly – too much for the Fed to sleep soundly.

• Global inflation: UK and Europe more relaxed, China almost in deflation.

💡 Inflation is falling, but fiscal and political risk is rising. The result? A dangerous cocktail for risk assets.

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🔹 S&P 500: Technology keeps markets alive

The index is moving sideways, between 5,300–5,400, with a fragile feeling.

⚠️ Rising wedge forming. If AI stops pumping, the correction could be abrupt.

📌 Watch out for next season’s earnings – it could change everything.

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🔹 BITCOIN: 108k zone – between breakout and fakeout

Bitcoin has consolidated between 105,000 and 108,000 USD, but:

• RSI on daily weakens

• MACD loses momentum

• Volumes are decreasing

At the same time, we see accumulation in spot orders, and ETFs have no big outflows.

📍 Possible final push to 113,000 USD to liquidate shorts. But if it fails… 98,000 USD is in the cards quickly.

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🔹 ETHEREUM: Playing defensively. But interesting.

ETH has returned to 2,427 USD and is reacting very well to the 2,375–2,400 support.

✅ Bull flag on 1D

✅ Positive divergence on MACD

📈 If BTC holds above 105k, ETH can be a "lead indicator" on the next climb to 2,600–2,700.

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🔥 GEOPOLITICS: Fear comes from the East

Israel-Iran tensions are still simmering below the surface.

• Gold is reacting.

• Oil is holding high (~$76).

• BTC has sometimes become a "volatile hedge", but not consistently.

🎯 An open conflict could produce huge volatility spikes - up or down.