According to the latest market data and analysis on July 5, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is showing a trend of oscillating downward today, with intensified long and short battles; the key price ranges and technical signals are as follows:
1. Current Price and Key Range
Latest Price: Narrow oscillation in the range of $107,700-$108,500, with a 24-hour decline of approximately 1.35%-1.9%.
Key Support Level:
Short-term Support: $107,000 (a support level tested multiple times), if broken, may dip to $105,800-$106,000 (20-day moving average or EMA50 support).
Strong Support: The range of $106,000-$107,500, if broken, may further correct to $90,000-$95,000.
Key Resistance Level:
Short-term Resistance: $108,500, which may challenge the psychological barrier of $110,000-$110,600 after a breakout.
Strong Resistance: $112,000 (recent high point, dense selling pressure).
2. Technical Signal
Trend Patterns:
Symmetrical Triangle Convergence: The 4-hour chart shows the Bollinger Bands narrowing, indicating an imminent directional breakout.
Triple Top Risk: A triple top may form at the daily level, with strong selling pressure above.
Indicator Analysis:
MACD: Short-term momentum is declining (red bars weakening), but the daily level remains positive, and the medium to long-term trend has not changed.
RSI: The 4-hour RSI is 48.2 (neutral to weak), indicating insufficient buying power.
Trading Volume: Recent trading volume has decreased by 28%, and an increase in volume is needed to confirm the validity of the breakout.
3. Influencing Factors and Market Sentiment
Macroeconomic Policy:
Trump Tax Cut Bill: Following its signing, concerns arose in the market regarding the tightening of dollar liquidity, temporarily suppressing the performance of risk assets.
Federal Reserve Expectations: Strong non-farm data in June has reduced the probability of a rate cut in September to 80%, leading to a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.
Capital Flow:
ETF Fund Outflow: Bitcoin spot ETFs have recently seen a net outflow of $602 million, with institutions taking a wait-and-see approach.
Market Sentiment: Greed Index at 73, but short-term correction pressure is increasing.
4. Operation Recommendations
Short-term Strategy:
Long Opportunity: If it stabilizes above $107,000-$107,500, a light long position can be tried, targeting $108,500-$110,000, with a stop loss below $106,500.
Short Opportunity: Short positions can be established when the rebound is blocked at $108,500-$110,000, with a target of $107,000 and a stop loss above $111,000.
Medium to Long-term Strategy: Pay attention to the Fed's policy direction in September; if it stabilizes above $108,000, it is still expected to challenge $116,000; if it falls below $106,000, watch for a deep correction to $90,000-$95,000.
5. Risk Warning
Policy Risk: The tariff policy on July 9 and the cryptocurrency executive order on July 22 may trigger volatility.
Liquidity Risk: After the Independence Day holiday, U.S. stock markets are closed, and trading volume in the crypto market has decreased, which may amplify volatility.
Summary: Bitcoin's performance today is primarily oscillating with a bearish bias, and close attention should be paid to the breakout direction in the $107,000-$108,500 range, flexibly operating in conjunction with trading volume and macro events, controlling positions and strictly setting stop losses.