According to the latest market data and analysis as of June 20, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently experiencing a volatile adjustment, with both bulls and bears contending at key support and resistance levels. Here is a comprehensive analysis from multiple sources:
1. Current price and short-term trend
Latest quote: Bitcoin's price today fluctuated between $103,999.01 and $104,980, with a 24-hour decline ranging from 0.14% to 1.5%.
Technical formation:
The 4-hour chart shows that Bitcoin has formed key support in the $104,300 - $103,750 range; if it breaks below, it may drop to $101,000 - $99,500; resistance is concentrated at $105,960 - $107,961 (20/50/100 day moving average cluster).
Bollinger Bands and ATR indicators show that volatility continues to contract, indicating a potential directional breakout in the short term.
2. Market momentum and indicator analysis
Mixed signals:
RSI (53.89) is close to neutral, MACD is slightly bullish, but the Klinger Oscillator and TSI (-0.57) still lean towards bearish, indicating insufficient momentum.
Trading volume has not significantly increased, and ADL (Accumulation/Distribution Line) is flat, indicating limited buying pressure.
Key event drivers: Recent declines are mainly due to technical selling pressure in the $108,000 - $109,000 resistance zone, as well as market concerns about Fed interest rate hikes and regulatory policies.
3. Support and resistance levels
Support level:
Immediate support: $104,300 - $103,750 (tested multiple times without breaking).
Secondary support: $101,000 and $99,500 (long-term demand zone).
Resistance level:
Short-term target: $105,300 (may test $109,000 after breakout).
Strong resistance: $108,000 - $109,000 (a breakout with volume is needed to confirm a bullish trend).
4. Operational advice and risk warnings
Short-term strategy:
If the $104,000 support holds, consider light long positions with a target of $105,300; if it breaks below $103,750, stop-loss is required.
Short positions should wait for confirmation of a break below the support level before proceeding.
Risk factors:
Global economic uncertainty (such as recurring pandemics) and regulatory dynamics may exacerbate volatility.
The long-term effects of Bitcoin's halving (April halving) have not yet fully manifested; attention should be paid to institutional fund inflows.
5. Market sentiment and future outlook
Neutral but cautious: Traders are waiting for breakout signals, with volatility close to cycle lows, and a breakout may lead to a one-sided market.
Mid to long-term positives: Development of Layer 2 technology, institutional accumulation (e.g., MicroStrategy's holding cost of $78,000) and halving effects may support prices.
In summary, Bitcoin's current trend is primarily volatile, and investors are advised to closely monitor the breakout of the $104,000 support and $105,300 resistance, dynamically adjusting strategies based on trading volume and technical indicators.