According to the latest market data and analysis as of June 30, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is showing a fluctuating trend today, with fierce long vs short competition. Below is a comprehensive analysis from multiple sources:
1. Current Price and Short-term Fluctuations
Latest Quote: Bitcoin has fallen below $108,000 today, with a daily decline of 0.37%. However, it briefly surpassed the resistance level of $108,500 in the morning and then retraced to fluctuate around $107,631.
Key Support and Resistance:
Support Level: $106,300 (multiple rebounds confirm effectiveness).
Resistance Level: $108,900 (if broken, it may initiate a new round of increases).
2. Technical Signals
Long vs Short Battle: The 4-hour K-line shows a contraction in the MACD histogram, with buying momentum weakening, but the dual lines still maintain a bullish advantage above the zero axis. If a golden cross or top divergence forms, it may trigger a breakout or a pullback respectively.
Trend Channel: The short-term upward channel has not been broken, but caution is needed as it approaches the upper line of the daily chart, suggesting avoiding chasing increases and waiting for low-buy opportunities.
3. Market Sentiment and Fund Movements
On-chain Data: The Bitcoin balance on exchanges has dropped to a historical low, with long-term funds continuously accumulating, supporting the bottom structure.
Derivatives Market: The entire network saw $172 million in liquidations in 24 hours (mainly short positions), and whales closed long positions for a profit of $160,000, indicating an increase in leverage trading risks.
4. Impact of Macroeconomic Environment
Federal Reserve Policy: The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 81.9%, with rate cut expectations supporting risk assets; a weaker dollar is favorable for the crypto market.
Political Factors: Trump's policy statements enhance bullish expectations for Bitcoin and gold, with loose fiscal policy potentially driving funds towards anti-inflation assets.
5. Divergence in Analyst Opinions
Optimists: Believe that after holding the support at $108,000, it may rise to $112,000, and are optimistic about the effects of the halving cycle and institutional fund inflows in the long term.
Cautious: Pointing out significant pressure near $108,900, if it cannot break through, it may retest $106,300 or even test lower supports (like $100,000).
6. Operational Recommendations
Short-term: Maintain a high short, low long strategy, focusing on the breakout of resistance at $108,900 and support at $106,300, and avoid heavy positions chasing orders.
Long-term: Focus on dollar-cost averaging or holding, paying attention to fundamental factors such as halving and ETF fund inflows, and be mindful of position management and hardware wallet storage.
Summary
Today, the Bitcoin market is at a critical decision point, with intensifying competition between technical and macroeconomic factors. Investors need to closely monitor tonight's U.S. PMI data and policy trends, and respond flexibly to sudden fluctuations. The short-term direction of the market is still unclear, but bottom support is relatively strong, and in the medium to long term, it is still seen by some institutions as the starting point of a 'golden decade'.