Happy weekend. Let's talk about my thoughts on the VRP of 3M options.

The 3M term, compared to end-date options, has a more stable IV, reflecting the market's long-term sentiment and providing greater reference significance for long-term trends.

From the perspective of 3M VRP, especially since 2025, it has remained in the negative zone for a long time. IV has been moving laterally around the midpoint of 60 to 70. RV has slowly climbed from 60 to 80.

This means that, in the long term, buyer strategies hold an advantage over seller strategies. The prices of 3M options are undervalued.

This is likely influenced by the long-term sluggishness of ETH spot prices, resulting in low market trading sentiment.

The skew curve also shows that call-side IV is gradually decreasing from being higher than put-side IV to a flat state.

So, will this trend continue? Will there be a reversal? If there is a reversal, how long will it take?

In my personal judgment, it may still require waiting until the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and market liquidity improves before the negative trend of VRP is truly reversed. Until then, the overall negative trend of 3M will continue.

In constructing strategies, sellers also need to be cautious, as they might be hurt by a surge in RV.

Specific suggestions for sellers are: first, based on the trends of end-date IV and 3M option IV, sell at highs and time the market. Second, try to use calendar strategies to buy long-term options for protection while also positioning for a rebound in vega.

For buyers, the suggestion is to boldly buy based on changes in RV. Buyers shouldn't overthink; there's no need for double buying; just buy according to your judgment with single purchases to maximize gains.

Wishing everyone prosperity~ The above is NFA, DYOR!