Trump has made a statement, saying that the ceasefire in Gaza may be determined within 24 hours. Sounds intimidating, right? But for us in the crypto market, what matters is whether the bombs will drop or whether the fire will cease; what does that have to do with my BTC and ETH in my account?
The core logic is really simple:
Ceasefire success = situation cools down? The market thinks the Middle East powder keg won’t explode for now, reducing risks. Short-term benefits for risk assets! Bitcoin, Ethereum, mainstream coins, and even US stocks might jump up a bit, after all, funds aren’t so scared anymore and dare to come out to play.
Ceasefire failure = continued chaos? Then it’ll be even more exciting; as tensions escalate, everyone’s first reaction is to seek safety! At this time, gold, the US dollar, and even Bitcoin (which is sometimes used as a safe haven) might be snatched up, while other altcoins might be scared into submission. Oil prices may also spike, and inflation fears will resurface, which is not good news for risk assets.
Personal opinion (with a bit of sharpness):
Don't just watch the excitement; pay attention to the details! The big players (Trump, Biden, Netanyahu) are just blowing hot air and setting deadlines; behind it all are the pulls of interest. For us, the key isn't who wins or loses, but who the market 'thinks' will win or lose! Market sentiment runs faster than the truth.
"Expectations of a ceasefire" have already started to run ahead in the market! If recently Bitcoin/mainstream coins have inexplicably seen a small rise, it might be that some funds are betting on the ceasefire in advance. Conversely, if there's a sudden drop, it might be that there are 'insider tips' suggesting negotiations are falling apart. When the news lands, it often follows the routine of 'buy the expectation, sell the fact.'
Let the cases speak: Remember when Hamas launched a surprise attack last October? When the news broke, Bitcoin dropped from $28,000 to around $27,300 in an instant (although it quickly rebounded), while gold surged. Why? A typical 'black swan' panic! If negotiations break down 24 hours later, be careful of a similar script (though the magnitude might be smaller). Conversely, if it really comes together, along with other positive factors (like interest rate cut expectations), it might spur a small rebound.
Airs' trading tip: In the next 24 hours, the trigger of the Middle East powder keg is in the hands of politicians, but we in the crypto circle need to have our bullets loaded in advance! Want to know how the ceasefire results will affect your positions in real time? Follow us for an in-depth breakdown of three strategies for bottom-fishing/top-topping under geopolitical gambling! Is it safe-haven gold or a gamble on altcoins?
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