Federal Reserve June Interest Rate Meeting Preview: Rate Cut Game and Market Storm Current market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve on June 17 have soared to 80%, but policy differences and political games intensify uncertainty.
Rate Cut Logic and Economic Signals
Weak Data Support: May non-farm payrolls at only 75,000 (expected 130,000), coupled with ISM services PMI falling below the growth line, strengthens the necessity for a rate cut. Inflation Variables: If June 15 CPI data is below expectations (current core PCE at 2.8%), it will clear the obstacles for a rate cut; if tariffs drive up prices, the Fed may be forced to wait.
Trump's Pressure and the Crisis of Fed Independence
Trump threatens to replace Powell, nominate a 'compliant' chairman, political intervention may undermine market trust in monetary policy and exacerbate volatility.
Asset Allocation Strategy
Hedging: If a rate cut occurs, Bitcoin (liquidity-driven 67), gold (inflation-resistant attributes) may surge in the short term; Risk Warning: Avoid leveraged bets on one-sided markets, beware of profit-taking after the 'shoe drops.'
Retail Investors' Action Guide: Reduce high-leverage positions, focus on CPI data, if a rate cut is confirmed, consider entering BTC/gold in batches, but set stop-losses. Under political disturbances, the Fed's decisions may deviate from pure economic logic, and market volatility will sharply increase.
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