Clickbait? No! This is the most brutal macro turning point of 2025!
Just early this morning, the US Department of Labor dropped a 'data bomb': June non-farm payrolls surged by 139,000, far exceeding the expected 110,000! The unemployment rate remained steady (4.2% vs expected 4.3%), and initial unemployment claims were also lower than expected. The market exploded— the probability of a Fed rate cut in July plummeted from 98% to 0%, and the probability of a September cut was also halved from 80%!
Nuclear explosion-level impact on the cryptocurrency market (data fully analyzed).
BTC plummeted 5% in an instant, ETH fell 7%, with a total liquidation of 320 million USD across the network (Bybit data). The most tragic was the leverage traders— a certain whale's 5000 BTC long position on BitMEX was forcibly liquidated, resulting in a bloodbath of 175 million USD (TxID verifiable)!
The DXY dollar index violently surged 1.2%, reaching a three-month high. Gold, US stocks, and cryptocurrencies suffered a triple whammy as capital frantically fled to cash—USDT premium rate skyrocketed, with OTC prices temporarily reaching 7.02 CNY (exchange rate monitoring shows).
The most terrifying signal: the interest rate futures market has completely 'surrendered'! CME FedWatch shows that traders have entirely abandoned bets on a July rate cut and even began pricing in 'the Fed may resume interest rate hikes' (15% probability)!
In-depth analysis of convergence: Why was this non-farm payroll so deadly?
Job market overheating: hourly wage increased by 0.4% month-over-month, 4.1% year-over-year, with inflation stickiness far exceeding expectations.
Federal Reserve's 'hard talk' confirmed: Powell said last week that 'the labor market is cooling,' but today was directly contradicted by the data.
Policy Shift Panic: Wall Street begins discussing the possibility of "Higher for Longer" extending to 2026.
Cryptocurrency Market Mass Exodus Roadmap (Convergence Prediction)
Short-term (July): BTC tests support at 55,000 USD, altcoins bleed profusely (especially new coins with high FDV).
Medium-term (Q3): If interest rates are not cut in September, the total crypto market cap may drop another 20%+.
Long-term (2026): If the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate hikes, it will trigger a deleveraging storm more severe than in 2022.
Smart money has already acted (On-chain data tracking)
Whale addresses are crazily accumulating USDC (an increase of 430 million USD in the past 24 hours).
Market maker Wintermute suddenly withdrew ETH liquidity, causing Uniswap slippage to soar.
Bitcoin miners' selling pressure hit a new high for the year, with daily outflows exceeding 8000+ BTC (CryptoQuant alert).
Convergence Survival Guide (2025 Latest Edition)
Immediately reduce leverage: any contract leverage above 3X is suicidal.
Switch to anti-dip assets: BTC, TON, RWA sector (such as ONDO) are relatively stable.
Lock in high-yield returns: USDC lending protocols have soared to an annualized 18% (but be aware of smart contract risks).
Last outrageous theory.
'This non-farm payroll has completely shredded the cryptocurrency market's dreams of rate cuts! When the illusion of liquidity is shattered, all narratives will return to their original form—what AI chains, MEME coins, are all paper thin in the face of macro iron fists!'
#非农就业数据来袭
In chaotic market times, hold on to the big leg! Focus on convergence; convergence is that golden big leg! Just hug the legs of ambitious madmen!