Heavy data explosion! Fed rate cut expectations 'bloodbath'
Last night's U.S. June non-farm payroll data completely ignited the market - the addition of 147,000 jobs far exceeded the expected 190,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%! This data directly shattered traders' last hopes for a Fed rate cut in July. The CME 'FedWatch' tool shows that the probability of a rate cut in September has plummeted from 70% to less than 50%. This means that the high interest rate environment will continue to suppress risk assets, and the cryptocurrency market, as a 'liquidity barometer', will bear the brunt!
Negative surprise! BTC and ETH may face 'hawkish slaughter'?
Historical data shows that when the Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts, Bitcoin and US tech stocks (especially the Nasdaq index) usually decline in sync. The current market liquidity tightening expectations are heating up, with USDT premium rates remaining negative for two consecutive weeks, and the stablecoin reserves of on-chain whales have dropped to the lowest point of the year! If Fed Chairman Powell sends 'hawkish' signals during the Congressional hearing next week, BTC is likely to test the key support level of $55,000, and altcoins need to be wary of a 'bloodbath'!
Smart money has acted! Three major hedging strategies exposed
Hedging tool: Institutions are crazily buying CME Bitcoin put options, with strike prices concentrated in the $52,000-$55,000 range;
Arbitrage opportunity: The Fed's delay in rate cuts is good for the dollar; pay attention to the cryptocurrency-dollar index inverse ETF (such as BITI);
Bottom signal: If BTC falls below $58,000, the on-chain MVRV indicator will enter the 'undervalued zone'; dollar-cost averaging investors can build positions in batches!
Ultimate warning: The biggest black swan before September - accelerated balance sheet reduction!
Wall Street's confidential documents show that the Fed may start QT (quantitative tightening) ahead of schedule; if true, global liquidity will tighten again. At that time, high-leverage alt projects, MEME coins, and staking lending protocols may become disaster areas! Retail investors are advised to act immediately:
Reduce contract leverage to below 5 times
Convert 20% of positions into stablecoins to cope with extreme volatility
Focus on the RWA track (such as ONDO, MKR) - real yield assets will become the core of the new narrative!
Convergence summary
Non-farm data is just the beginning; the real storm is at the July FOMC meeting! Market turmoil, strong players team up! Converged top positions open, limited to ambitious and crazy players!