A subtle change in a key data point has emerged in Bitcoin's recent volatile market — since the concentration of chips peaked at 14.5% on June 24, it has quietly retreated to 13.1%. Although the change is not significant, it reflects that some concentrated chips are starting to loosen, forming a structural loosening signal in an environment where the market has not yet determined its direction.
(Figure 1)
The current trend of Bitcoin is somewhat similar to the consolidation phase from the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025: the price tests up and down multiple times within a range, but has not managed to form a clear breakthrough, reflecting that the market is in a state of observation and hesitation.
(Figure 2)
However, it is worth emphasizing that although the concentration has decreased, the level of 13% is still at a relatively high point in recent years. Historical experience tells us that when concentration is at a similar level, the market usually does not remain quiet for long. Whether it's the rapid rise in February 2024 or the sudden plunge in June, both stages triggered significant fluctuations when the concentration was about 13%.
Therefore, the seemingly stable market currently actually hides strong uncertainty. On one hand, when the market lacks sufficient liquidity, funds need to find new price discovery paths through drastic price fluctuations; on the other hand, concentrated chips make the market more susceptible to public sentiment, policy changes, or black swan events.
The recent 'Musk-Trump' controversy, although not a major policy shift, is enough to cause a significant reaction in Bitcoin, highlighting the fragility of market sentiment. This further confirms a reality: when the market lacks a clear consensus on price trends, any variable can become a trigger point.