July 3, 2025

Yesterday I mentioned that the market could start at any time, and I didn't expect Bitcoin to almost touch 110,000 last night, with Ethereum briefly breaking through 2,600 USD. However, contrary to my expectations, this time the breakthrough at the resistance level was still a small attempt, rather than a big bullish candle, so I believe the probability of a direct breakthrough is still relatively low. Of course, since we are back at the resistance level, there is still a possibility of a breakthrough, but the probability is low. What if we see a scenario of a low-probability event?

Overall, I am relatively optimistic about the upcoming market in the second half of the year because, in terms of timing, the bulls still have the advantage. The biggest positive factor in the second half of the year is that the U.S. dollar is expected to continue lowering interest rates. Both the liquidity and sentiment aspects can be seen as bullish. Strictly from a timing perspective, we have only just entered the second half of the year in the past few days, so there are still 2-3 months left for a potential launch. In other words, it is possible for the launch to start in the next 2-3 months.

Conversely, we need to pay a bit more attention to the market in the coming months. If the 110,000 resistance level is breached multiple times without success, there is a high probability of forming a temporary top, which could span a yearly cycle. In my opinion, even a strong asset like Bitcoin will still follow periodic objective rules; continuously rising would contradict the pricing logic of financial assets. Of course, if, like the U.S. stock market, the pullback is reduced, that would also be quite good.

Currently, looking at the overall market, the prices of altcoins are dismal. Engaging in speculation doesn't mean much, but objectively speaking, if you buy at this price, just hold on. After all, if Bitcoin breaks through 110,000 and Ethereum leads a decent rally, altcoins will likely rise a bit. However, from a long-term investment perspective, I strongly do not recommend altcoins. Lastly, there should be a major project WLFI coming out in the next few days, so keep an eye on that.

Thank you for your attention and likes.