When Washington sneezes, Wall Street catches a cold, and the crypto space better listen closely!
According to reliable sources, a group of Republican bigwigs in the U.S. House of Representatives plan to vote on a key procedural rule for a bill called 'Big and Beautiful' at 15:30 Beijing time today. If this hurdle is cleared smoothly, the final vote that truly determines the fate of this bill is set for around 17:30 Beijing time.
BUT! Now there's a big problem: A heavyweight Republican Congressman from Pennsylvania, Perry, has actually returned home! Other undecided Congress members have directly stated: If Perry doesn't come back, we won't vote! Moreover, this group plans to act together; they will either all vote or not vote at all.
Personal Opinions & Related Cases:
Uncertainty is the poison of the market: This scenario of 'key figures absent' and 'watching from the sidelines' clearly creates enormous uncertainty. The longer political games drag on, the more anxious the market becomes. Think about last year's various deadlocks over the U.S. debt ceiling; wasn’t each one nerve-wracking for global markets? Bitcoin, as a highly volatile 'risk appetite thermometer', is most sensitive to this political tug-of-war.
'Big and Beautiful' bill has far-reaching effects: Although specific details haven't been mentioned, being referred to as 'Big and Beautiful' must involve government spending, taxation, and may even influence the direction of economic stimulus policies. This directly relates to U.S. dollar liquidity, inflation expectations, and government bond yields — all of which are core factors in cryptocurrency valuation models. For instance, the massive liquidity injection during the pandemic in 2020 was one of the key drivers of Bitcoin's epic bull market.
Timing is spot on: The afternoon to evening in Beijing time is precisely when the European and American markets are transitioning, and liquidity is relatively active. Any voting result (especially unexpected ones) could trigger significant volatility. Think about the last time CPI data was released when BTC spiked up and down by thousands of dollars within minutes.
So, buckle up everyone! At 15:30 and 17:30 this afternoon, keep a close eye on the market. When will Perry fly back to Washington? Which way will that group of 'watching from the sidelines' lean in the end? Any variable could send BTC/ETH on a 'political rollercoaster'. Is it 'buy the rumor, sell the fact', or 'the shoe drops and bears are out'? The market is about to provide answers. Follow me for the latest updates and interpretations of market movements first thing!#华盛顿风云 #加密市场波动预警
