What the market fears is not an open attack, but a feigned attack; hidden policy cards are more unsettling than direct confrontation!
Interpretation of Bessenet's 'Riddler' remarks:
Trade war threat: “No agreement? The tariff stick can come back at any time!”
What was said: Bessenet warned trading partners (mainly targeting the EU) not to just talk but to take action! If negotiations do not make progress, the U.S. will reintroduce the tariffs added on April 2 (possibly referring to steel and aluminum tariffs or new targets).
Subtext: “Don’t think the Biden administration is easy to talk to; we still have the key to Trump’s ‘America First’ arsenal!” Today’s talks with the EU yield uncertain results, and a statement like “let’s see what happens” highlights the tug-of-war and uncertainty at the negotiating table.
Anna's view: This 'Schrodinger's tariff' is the most annoying! It directly suppresses global trade and supply chain confidence. Think about 2020, every time trade frictions escalated, risk assets like BTC shivered. If the EU stands firm, global market risk aversion will rise, which is favorable for gold and the dollar in the short term, but it’s cold water for the crypto market with high risk appetite.
U.S. Treasury confidence show: “No worries about selling! The whole world is scrambling to buy U.S. debt!”
What was said: The Treasury Secretary assured that the demand for U.S. Treasury bonds is robust, with both domestic and foreign buyers scrambling to purchase, and the debt repayment process is 'orderly' (meaning there’s no need to worry about the U.S. defaulting).
Subtext: “Everyone, don’t panic! Even though we owe a lot of debt, our credit is still intact, and we’re not worried about no one picking up the tab; there won’t be another Lehman Brothers 2.0.”
Anna's view: The Treasury Secretary must say this; otherwise, the market will panic even more. But the key is to look at actual yields and the structure of buyers. If it’s really that strong, why did long-term U.S. Treasury yields soar recently? How long can the ‘last buyer’ game last is a question mark. U.S. Treasury rates are the anchor for global asset pricing; their stability directly affects the funding costs and valuation models in the crypto market. Think about the U.S. Treasury sell-off in 2023; altcoins were in a bloodbath!
Criticizing the Federal Reserve: “You guys have set the rates too high, and your judgment is off!”
What was said: Directly confront the Federal Reserve! Said, “The two-year Treasury yield suggests that the overnight rate (the benchmark rate controlled by the Fed) is too high,” and that inflation expectations will come down (implying that the Fed has overdone rate hikes). Criticized the Fed Committee's judgment as “biased,” even specifically called on the Fed to “spend wisely” and “reasonably adjust the budget.”
Subtext: “Powell, you guys are too hawkish! It’s time to shift direction! And don’t spend excessively (implying that the Fed is suffering serious losses).” When asked if he wants Powell to step down, he dodged the question but hinted that “there are many candidates,” with two board positions vacant next year.
Insight from Shen Ce: This is the most significant signal! The Treasury Secretary publicly criticizing the independence of the central bank is extremely rare. This is equivalent to sending a clear message to the market: the White House believes the rate hike cycle is over, and it may even be time to cut rates! Combined with his statement that “inflation expectations will drop,” it is practically an early signal for the Fed to change course. Historically, at the beginning of rising rate cut expectations, it is often a honeymoon period for the crypto market (with examples in 2019 and the end of 2023). Rumors of personnel changes add more uncertainty, and a dovish leadership would be a big positive for the market.
Bessenet's recent 'riddle' and 'bombshell' seem to be aimed at the EU and calming the bond market, but in reality, it secretly points the biggest 'policy shift' signal towards the Federal Reserve! The sanction bullets are ready, rate cut expectations are brewing, and there are undercurrents of personnel earthquakes at the Fed... In this triple game, which bomb will explode first? How will the market bet? Stay tuned for Shen Ce, next issue breakdown: the eve of policy shift, how to position your crypto holdings!
#非农就业数据来袭 #BTC重返11万 $BTC
