When Bitcoin sneezes, altcoins catch a cold! Now that Bitcoin has stabilized at $106,000, the harder DOGE is pressed like a 'spring', the more it might bounce back fiercely when it truly breaks $0.175! But remember, if the spring breaks, you better run faster than the dog!
What’s the current situation?
Price: $0.174, up nearly 2% in the last 24 hours, a small rebound. Today it touched a low of $0.167 and a high of $0.1745.
Has it been bad recently? Yes! It halved directly by 35% last month, hitting a low of $0.14! However, it has stabilized around $0.165 in recent days without further declines, which is a good sign.
Is anyone trading? Yes! In the last 4 hours, trading volume suddenly increased, and the price also rose, indicating real money is entering to scoop up bargains!
Technical aspects
Key positions must be watched closely:
Floor (Support):
$0.156–0.158: This is the newly formed 'double bottom' neck position (imagine a W bottom), and it’s the lifeline of the long-term trend line! (Shen Ce Opinion: This is the last defense line for bulls; breaking here must stop loss unconditionally!)
$0.1525: This is the lower edge of the long-term rising channel since 2014! If broken, it’s likely to go down to $0.12 to find support, extremely dangerous!
Ceiling (Resistance):
$0.172–0.175: This is a psychological barrier and a place where many people previously got stuck and want to break free. (Shen Ce Opinion: This is the biggest hurdle right now! Only if we break and stabilize here can we truly be considered strong in the short term!)
$0.192–0.205: A bunch of important moving averages (50-day, 100-day) are stuck here; it’s the dividing line between bull and bear markets. To see significant gains, we must chew through this tough bone!
The chart has secrets:
'Double bottom' formed: It hit down twice around $0.157 without breaking, resembling a W shape, and has surged past the 'W' neck line at $0.161 with volume. Technicians view this as a reversal signal!
'Descending wedge' is about to break: On the daily chart, it looks like a continuously narrowing descending triangle (wedge), nearing the end. (Shen Ce Case: After a similar pattern last October, DOGE soared over 80% in a month!) If it truly breaks out this time, the theoretical target could reach $0.26 (up 58%).
Long-term channel still exists: The rising trend line drawn since 2014 is currently rubbing against the lower edge at $0.1525. If it can hold above this without breaking in the third quarter, historical patterns indicate a potential rise of 70% to $0.3!
Indicators are conflicting:
Bulls say: RSI (4-hour) has returned from the oversold zone to 55, not that weak anymore; MACD green bars have appeared (though a bit shrunk), indicating that bears aren't that fierce anymore.
Bears say: KDJ value is 86, short-term buying is too aggressive, there's a pullback pressure; plus, the price is still below all important moving averages (especially the 20-day line at $0.169 and the 200-day line at $0.205), still weak.
3. Market sentiment and 'catalysts' (news bombs)
Good news (possible rise):
Bitcoin has stabilized at $106,000; if it can surge to $113,000, DOGE, being a 'follower', will likely bounce along!
If Musk and other big shots tweet about DOGE again... Those in the know understand, it can instantly skyrocket for you! (Shen Ce Opinion: This is the biggest short-term X factor, but it's unpredictable; don’t gamble!)
Bad news (possible crash):
Trump's government says it will 'review DOGE'; the regulatory sword hangs over it, ready to drop at any moment, causing panic selling!
The Fed is meeting in July to discuss interest rates. Will they raise rates? Will they taper? Global markets are tense, and volatility in the crypto market will certainly increase; be careful not to get hurt!
4. July script & how to operate? (Shen Ce Practical Strategy)
How might July go?
Bullish scenario (40% chance): Volume stabilizes above $0.175 + Bitcoin performs well ➔ Target $0.192–0.205.
Continues to grind (50% chance): Wandering between $0.160–0.170 ➔ High sell low buy range.
Crash (10% chance): Falling below $0.1525 iron bottom ➔ Prepare to go to $0.13x or even $0.12x to scoop up cheaper chips.
Shen Ce operational advice:
Where to buy?
Conservative: Wait for a pullback near $0.161 (trend line support), try a small position, and stop loss must be below $0.158! (Breaking the double bottom neck line means the pattern fails).
Aggressive/Wait for pullback: If it can hit $0.156 again (double bottom position), can add some positions, but stop loss must be tighter, below $0.152! (Breaking the long-term channel means you must run).
Breakout style: After breaking out with volume (remember, it must be with volume!), chase it when it stabilizes after touching $0.175.
When to sell?
Short-term: If it hits near $0.175 pressure zone, if it stalls and volume doesn't keep up, sell some first.
Medium-term: If it can rise to $0.205 (dense moving average area + previous gap), must significantly reduce holdings or even liquidate to observe! There's huge pressure here!
Shen Ce Blood and Tears Experience: Breaking $0.175 must pay attention to volume! Breakouts without volume are just playing tricks, and are likely false breakouts to trick you into buying before dumping! Don't chase highs!
5. Long-term view (2025-2030)
Second half of 2025: If it can effectively break $0.205 and stabilize, there’s hope to challenge the previous high of $0.48. But the premise is that Bitcoin must go bullish, and everyone starts crazily trading Meme coins again!
2026-2030:
Only if it can stay above $0.20 for a long time can we consider it the start of a new cycle. In 2026, it might touch $0.30; by 2030, ideally looking at $0.60–0.95. (Shen Ce Reminder: This target is a bit ambitious; just listen, the key is in the execution!)
Core long-term value: We need to see if it can really be used to buy things (payment scenarios), and whether the 'Dogecoin community' can maintain its belief. Relying solely on Musk's endorsements won't take us far!
Shen Ce Summary
'Dogecoin is currently like a tightly wound spring, crouching at the monthly line change window! Double bottom + wedge is a potential engine, but $0.1525 is the absolute 'bottom of the tank' that must not break! Before July 10, keep a close eye on $0.175 as the 'detonation point'—break and stabilize, press the accelerator; false breakouts or breakdowns, jump out quickly! Remember, making money in a bull market relies on courage, and surviving in a bear market relies on running! Build positions gradually, dynamically take profits; living longer is the true victory!'
Shen Ce soul-searching question: Do you have Dogecoin in hand now? What’s your position? Where are you planning to add or run? Share your strategy in the comments! Follow Shen Ce, and doubling wealth is not a dream!#特朗普马斯克分歧 $DOGE
