【The First Stock of Stablecoins: How Long Can the Valuation of $CRCL Hold Up?】
Circle went public a month ago, skyrocketing from $31 to nearly $300, and has now fallen back to around $192. The surge is backed by the interest rate spread of USDC and the narrative of "compliant stablecoins." The latest news is that the company has applied to the OCC to establish a "National Trust Bank for Digital Currencies," while also benefiting from the highly publicized GENIUS Act, aimed at opening up larger traditional financial channels.
However, market discrepancies are also widening. Many opinions on X label CRCL as a "booster for dollar hegemony," while on Reddit, there are concerns about its P/E ratio exceeding 2000 times and its excessive reliance on interest spreads. Once the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates within the year, the net interest income of USDC may be squeezed.
Options data also reveals the attitude of funds: implied volatility has dropped below 110%, and the Put/Call (OI) ratio is 1.01, indicating an increase in short-term bearish protection, but the directional betting is not obvious. The implied volatility of near-month contracts expiring in early July remains around 118%, with the Max Pain range concentrated around $195, where long and short sentiments are battling.
The key for CRCL lies in regulation and macro interest rates: the quicker the regulations are implemented and the faster the custody and payment ecosystem expands, the more likely it is to hedge against the contraction of interest spreads; otherwise, high valuations may face a secondary correction. The progress of the House bill in Q3 and the financial reports in mid to late July are worth special attention.
🌟 Is the regulatory dividend enough to hedge against falling interest rates? Does CRCL still have room for unexpected growth? Feel free to leave a comment and discuss.
Disclaimer: The content is for communication purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.