【MicroStrategy: Behind the Pause in Accumulating Bitcoin, S&P 500 Inclusion Competition Heats Up】
Last week, MicroStrategy (MSTR) paused its Bitcoin purchases for the first time, but immediately launched a plan to issue up to $4 billion in convertible preferred stock, reserving ammunition for continued "leveraged accumulation". The company currently holds nearly 600,000 BTC, with unrealized gains exceeding $22 billion. Its market capitalization and profit metrics have met the technical conditions for inclusion in the S&P 500, and institutions generally expect it could be included as early as the end of this year or early next year, at which point passive index fund inflows may spur another wave of market activity.
However, this "index inclusion" logic comes with significant controversy: on one hand, bulls on Reddit and X remain optimistic about the "double hit" of a BTC bull market and index inclusion; on the other hand, existing shareholders express concerns over ongoing dilution from continuous financing, and there have been recent shareholder lawsuits regarding information disclosure and equity dilution.
From the options market perspective, MSTR's current 30-day implied volatility is only 54.9%, situated at a low percentile over the past year (IV Rank≈2.4%). On July 7, the total trading volume of MSTR options was approximately $330 million, with a Put/Call nominal amount ratio of about 1:40. Among them, the $390 call options expiring in August and September 2025 each had transaction amounts exceeding $120 million, and most were executed at the mid price (MID), reflecting that institutions prefer to shift positions or arbitrage through spreads rather than taking unilateral long positions, with overall sentiment leaning neutral.
For those interested in this "Bitcoin treasury stock", the core remains two points: the resilience of Bitcoin's price and whether S&P 500 inclusion can be realized. If one wishes to speculate on future volatility, they may pay attention to near-month straddles or far-month bull spreads; if concerned about dilution risk, it would be prudent to hedge with puts, as this keeps costs manageable.
