Discussion on hot topics:
Well, let’s first talk about MicroStrategy. It has already shot out of the stratosphere, not only surpassing the high of 112K on May 23 but also directly exceeding the secondary high of 110.6K on June 9. Given this momentum, it seems likely to charge directly towards a new high, while Bitcoin is still within the bull flag channel.
To reiterate the key point, during this drop from 112K, the open interest decreased simultaneously. There was no sign of shorts aggressively increasing their positions to push down the market, which doesn't resemble a false breakout like a top divergence. So whether it's a washout or a real drop, the current short-term market structure is not clear.
The reason it’s stuck at 110.3K is due to a pile of contracts based on coin and USDT, along with large spot orders on Coinbase blocking the way. The bulls can't push through, so it has been stuck sideways for the past few days. But the key point is that the structure hasn’t broken! The bulls are not dead!
Even if you are bearish, don't impulsively short; you need to operate backed by 110.3K. If it truly breaks, you must reverse and go all in, or wait to get squeezed. The current market seems calm but actually has a hint of a charge.
Returning to the market, yesterday's plunge below 105K directly pierced through the bulls, resulting in a mess of stop losses. The key is that there were barely any bulls coming in below 103K, indicating that everyone is waiting and feels this isn't the time to bottom-fish.
But conversely, when bearish liquidity piles up and the bulls are nearly dead, the probability of a rebound might actually increase. The previous price surge to 112K without clearing out bearish liquidity often indicates a new narrative brewing in the spot market.
If the price starts to rebound at this time, it can be seen as a standard technical correction. The 4-hour level structure is still intact, so it won’t directly turn bearish.
The supply band at 108.5K can be seen above; if the volume supports it, clearing out short liquidity above 110K is not unrealistic, and it might even surge to 113K. If it truly breaks 103K, that’s another story; the bearish trend might just be beginning. As for now, it’s too early...
Discussion on trends:
Resistance level reference:
Second resistance level: 116700.
First resistance level: 105900.
Support level reference:
Second support level: 104800.
First support level: 103700.
Bitcoin has failed to successfully create a bull flag pattern and is currently continuing to test lower; pay attention to the support situation in the range of 103.7K~104.8K today. Short-term support reference: 104.8K; currently, there is strong buying support in the range of 103.7K~104.8K, suitable for gradually accumulating long positions.
If the RSI indicator further enters the oversold zone, a short-term rebound can continue to be expected. If it rebounds to the first resistance level of 105.9K, it can be seen as short-term market repair.
If successfully stabilizing at 105.9K, the next step can focus on the important support level of 106.7K that was lost earlier; this position is likely to turn into strong resistance. If the price rushes to the second support at 106.7K but the trading volume significantly shrinks, the market will adjust again.
If the price retraces and does not break the range of 105.7K~105.9K, it is also a layout opportunity for a very short-term long position. The current key support level of 104.8K, if broken again, will trigger a deeper downward trend. To maintain rebound momentum, the 104.8K~105K area must not be easily lost.
If the RSI further enters a severely oversold zone, the second support near 103.7K can serve as a more robust point for gradual accumulation. This area has strong buying interest and serves as a reference for stopping the decline and rebound.
7.2 Discussion on wave strategy:
Long entry reference: Gradually accumulate longs in the range of 103300-103700; target: 104800-105900.
Short entry reference: Gradually short in the range of 106700-107700; target: 105900-104800.
If you genuinely want to learn something from a blogger, you must keep following them, rather than jumping to conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today’s long position screenshot, tomorrow’s short position summary, it looks like 'nailing the tops and bottoms', but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly noteworthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and stands up to scrutiny, rather than just jumping in when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and in-depth understanding are needed to distinguish who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
