ETH today's market analysis: Fierce battle at 2483 watershed, is it a buying opportunity or a continuation of the decline? — The Great Sage takes you through the market signals to capture key points.
"Bull markets have sharp declines, bear markets have spikes" — today's ETH market perfectly illustrates this saying. It was still hovering around 2480 in the morning, then suddenly surged to 2570 at noon, but before retail investors could FOMO in, a large bearish candle smashed it back to the key level of 2483, a perfect double kill for longs and shorts!

Technical aspect: Bollinger Bands are converging, is the MACD golden cross a trap or an opportunity?

From the 1-hour chart, ETH is currently stuck around the mid-Bollinger Band at 2472, repeatedly rubbing against it. The upper pressure at 2511 is obvious, while the lower support at 2439 is short-term. The most intriguing part is the MACD: even though it has a golden cross with DIF crossing DEA, the price is falling instead of rising, a typical "fake-out market."

Key points:

2514: Morning high point, also a previous area of being trapped, breaking through it will open up space.

2430: Today's watershed, if it breaks, it could head straight for 2366.

2480: Nearby current price, focus of long and short contention, if it stabilizes, you can lightly test long positions.

Great Sage's personal opinion
I've seen this kind of trend many times! The main players are clearly playing "false breakouts with real harvesting":

Pump to lure longs: Morning surge to 2510 attracted retail investors to chase.

Instant crash: Large orders smashed through 2490, triggering stop-loss orders.

Low-level accumulation: Currently hovering around 2483, waiting for panic selling.
Great Sage's bitter experience: Last week, ETH also had a false breakout near 2500, resulting in a washout followed by a 3-day rise. Will this script repeat itself this time?

News: SEC delays ETF decision, are large holders taking the opportunity to accumulate?

Early this morning, the SEC postponed the decision on BlackRock's ETH ETF, which was initially a negative sign, but on-chain data shows:

Whale addresses have accumulated over 20,000 ETH in the 2480-2500 range, approximately $50 million.

ETH reserves on exchanges are decreasing, indicating that chips are flowing from retail investors to large holders.
Conclusion: The news is bearish, but large funds are actually buying in, so it might be that "bad news is fully priced in" in the short term.

Operational advice: How should retail investors respond?

Radicals: Current price 2483-2500, gradually place long orders, stop loss at 2450, target 2520.

Conservative: Wait for a breakthrough at 2540, then confirm the pullback before chasing, or go short if it breaks below 2450.

Contract party: Be mindful of leverage! ETH's volatility is only 0.73%, but once it breaks, it could spike or crash instantly.


Current ETH is like Schrödinger's cat — if it doesn't break 2483, it's a buying opportunity; if it does, it's the abyss! Do you think the main players are 'shaking out' or really 'running away'? Share your holding costs in the comments, and the Great Sage will pick 3 people for tomorrow's market analysis VIP version!$ETH #Solana质押型ETF

If you don't know how to identify effective breakout points or stop-loss points, you can follow the Great Sage's homepage, which will teach you step by step.