Market always arises in despair, rises in hesitation, and perishes in madness.” — Today, BTC has once again reached a critical watershed, with 106676 becoming a battleground for bulls and bears. Is it a power accumulation for a breakout or a pullback for washing positions? Let's listen to the great sage's analysis!

Technical analysis: Key point game, warning of negative golden cross.

From the 1-hour candlestick chart, BTC is currently in a consolidation box of 105000-109000. The upper 109000 is a strong resistance level, while the lower 105000-106000 is short-term support. The current price is repeatedly testing around 106676, which is both a watershed and a psychological barrier.

Key signals:

Risk of negative golden cross pullback: MACD has formed a golden cross below the zero axis. Historical experience indicates a 70% probability of a pullback before rising. Short-term caution is needed for false washouts.

Main force order game: Commission ratio -0.49%, indicating that large funds are pressuring the market, but the depth chart shows accumulated buy orders, which may indicate a 'false breakdown' to lure short positions.

Liquidation warning: The chart indicates recent high-leverage positions concentrated, and once volatility intensifies, it could trigger a chain liquidation, causing sharp rises and falls.

The great sage's blood and tears experience:
On June 28, BTC also hovered around 106000, and due to the negative golden cross signal, it briefly pulled back to 103000, then quickly rebounded. Will history repeat itself?

News: The Fed is dovish, but capital is flowing out of the crypto sector.

Positive factors:

Expectations of Fed rate cuts heat up: Last night's US PCE data was below expectations, and the market bets on a 70% chance of a rate cut in September, benefiting risk assets. BTC usually reacts in line with US stocks.

Institutional accumulation: BlackRock's spot ETF has seen three consecutive days of net inflow, indicating significant capital accumulation at lower levels.

Negative factors:

Outflow of exchange funds: On-chain data shows that Binance saw a net outflow of 12,000 BTC today, with some large holders taking profits.

Regulatory wind: Discussions on the SEC's stablecoin regulation draft have intensified, which may suppress market sentiment.

Great sage's view: Volatile market, high sell low buy.

Short-term strategy:

Breakout at 109000: Confirm trend reversal, may lightly chase longs, target 112000.

If it breaks below 105000: Beware of a deep pullback, with the next support at 103000.

Current price level: Suggest watching carefully. If it pulls back to 105000 without breaking, partial bottom fishing can be considered; if it fakes a breakout at 109000, beware of a lure.

Medium-term outlook:
Q3 is usually a slow season for the crypto market, but this year, combined with the Fed's policy shift, BTC may oscillate in the large range of 100000-120000, suitable for grid trading.

The calm before the storm

“Bull markets grow in pessimism, mature in doubt, and die in optimism.” — BTC is currently at a critical turning point. Is this a washout by the main force or the start of a new wave? Tomorrow at 8 PM, the great sage's live stream will decode the main force's order secrets. Click to follow to avoid missing opportunities or getting trapped!

If you don't know how to identify effective breakout points or valid stop-loss points, you can follow the great sage's homepage for a step-by-step guide.