Advisor discusses hot topics:
Today, it’s necessary to talk about the recent ETF; net inflows continue to remain flat. The data from the US market is relatively normal, but honestly, the buying power in the Bitcoin spot market is pretty low.
The market is stagnant, with prices hovering around 107K for almost ten days. It neither rises nor falls. There’s no deviation from the script; is it just dragging time to harvest patience?
So why did the ETF come? Wasn’t it supposed to bring funds into the market? But now, native funds from the crypto space are flowing into the ETF instead; isn’t that just bloodsucking?
Americans used to see Bitcoin as a mysterious treasure, but now it has turned into this; it's not that impressive, with scammers flying around and a sky full of worthless coins. Previously, the hope was that funds from the US stock market would flow in continuously, but what happened?
They came, played with the ETF. Then they found that the crypto space is like a gathering of scammers, turned around and left. There was a high-level bloodbath right there, and it was all their own people getting cut.
Isn’t this ironic? Everyone thought the ETF was a positive, but looking back now, it’s actually poison. Money is flowing out of the crypto space, the ecosystem is inactive, and spot trading is stagnant... even the liquidation chart lacks new momentum, so this market can only play short-term.
Looking back at the monthly line of the market, it has closed. From a monthly perspective, Bitcoin’s previous pullback to 74K was a washout and accumulation. After that, it surged high and has been consolidating at high levels.
In my opinion, as long as Bitcoin stabilizes above 109.5K, it is highly likely to continue rising, with a target of 30K points increase not being an exaggeration. Conversely, if it cannot break through 112K, then caution is warranted; this round's high might be set here. I’ll give the conclusion first, but I still see more potential for the bulls.
Why? Just look at the liquidation chart; there has hardly been any liquidation in the last 10 days. They tried to sweep the shorts and got scared at the edge. When they wanted to go long, they couldn't find a sufficiently dense liquidation zone.
Do you understand what this means? It means that a long-anticipated big volatility is likely to come next! Historical data shows that in such situations, fluctuations can be as much as 20%, and most of the time, it is a favorable surge.
In this market, to put it bluntly, even the bears are running out of ammunition, hoping for some bad news to save them. But the problem is, there’s nothing significant globally that deserves a major sell-off. Where's the rescue? On the contrary, as long as there are no external disturbances, time will favor the bulls.
This is the rhythm of the bulls preparing a big move. Not asking for much, just hoping for some volatility. A bit of bad news dropping down would be fine, then flip to long directly, at least there’s space for speculation! So now I'm waiting for the trend, waiting for a big wave, ready to jump in and weld the door shut!
Advisor looks at the trend:
Resistance level reference:
Second resistance level: 118400
First resistance level: 107500
Support level reference:
Second support level: 106700
First support level: 105900
Currently, Bitcoin has not effectively broken through the key downward trend line on the 4-hour chart. After the failed attempt to rise, the price has seen a pullback.
The current price has retreated to the previous range of oscillation, focusing on the 106.7K~107.5K range. Additionally, the RSI indicator continues to decline, indicating a risk of further pullback in the short term, approaching the oversold zone.
If the RSI shows a reversal signal and moves upwards again, a short-term rebound is likely. The key short-term support level is at 106.7K; if it breaks this level, the pullback will accelerate.
If it can regain the first resistance level of 107.5K, it will test the upper trend line again. If it successfully breaks the downward trend line and stabilizes in the 107.8K~108K range, it can be considered a trend reversal.
Current highs are gradually moving down. Without external positive stimuli, I don't see much potential for a significant rise. If it continues to fall, consider a strategy of gradually buying in at lower prices.
The first support at 106.7K is a crucial short-term support level. If it breaks, pay attention to whether the price can quickly recover. It's advisable to watch for buying support in the 106.4K~106.7K range.
The maximum possible pullback space can be seen around 106K, where it also intersects with the 200-day and 120-day moving averages on the 4-hour chart.
Currently in a phase of adjustment after a rise. If there is a further pullback, short-term low-entry opportunities can be sought.
7.1 Advisor's segment pre-set:
Long entry reference: 105000-105900 range, long in batches. Target: 107500-108400
Short entry reference: 108400-108800 range, short in batches. Target: 107500-106700
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following, rather than looking at the market a few times and jumping to conclusions. This market is filled with performers; today they show long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they ‘always catch the top and bottom,’ but in reality, it's all hindsight. A blogger worth following will have a consistent and coherent trading logic that stands up to scrutiny, not just jumping in when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to distinguish who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
