Although this week is shortened due to an additional holiday in the U.S., there are still many important economic events that could impact the crypto market.
However, instead of being evenly distributed throughout the short week, most U.S. economic indicators are densely concentrated on Tuesday and Thursday — with Thursday being particularly busy.
Traders may anticipate macroeconomic data this week by monitoring the following events.
U.S. economic indicators to monitor this week
Crypto investors should pay attention to the following U.S. economic indicators, as they could cause fluctuations in Bitcoin's price.
U.S. economic indicators to watch this week | Source: MarketWatch
These macro data are particularly important as the labor market gradually becomes the next macro data for Bitcoin.
JOLTS
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will kick off the series of economic indicators this week with potential impacts on the crypto market. The full report is titled 'Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey,' published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Expected to be released on Tuesday, the May JOLTS report is anticipated to decrease slightly from the 7.4 million job openings recorded in April. According to economists surveyed by MarketWatch, the data on job openings, hiring, and separations in the U.S. could reach 7.3 million. Despite the decrease, this number remains above the multi-month low of 7.192 million recorded in March.
Although only slightly decreased, the JOLTS report is still considered the most notable highlight in this week's series of U.S. economic data.
A decrease in the number of job openings could be a sign that the labor market is gradually cooling, prompting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to consider easing monetary policy. This scenario could weaken the U.S. dollar and enhance the appeal of Bitcoin as an alternative asset.
Conversely, if the number of job openings remains stable or increases, this could reinforce expectations that the Fed will continue to maintain a tight monetary policy, thereby reducing the appeal of Bitcoin.
ADP employment report
Another highlight in the series of U.S. economic indicators this week is the ADP employment report for June 2025, expected to be released on Thursday, July 2. In May, the private sector in the U.S. only added 37,000 jobs — the lowest increase since March 2023.
However, the report from the BLS (more comprehensive and considered the official measure) recorded an increase of 140,000 jobs in the private sector in May 2025.
Currently, economists forecast a median increase of 120,000 jobs in the June ADP report. If the actual number is lower than expected, this could signal that the economy is slowing down, prompting the Fed to consider easing monetary policy.
This change could weaken the USD, thereby increasing the appeal of Bitcoin as a hedge against currency depreciation.
Conversely, if the ADP employment report exceeds expectations, this could reinforce the Fed's ability to continue its tightening monetary policy — a factor that could reduce Bitcoin's appeal in the short term.
Initial jobless claims
In the week ending June 21, initial jobless claims in the U.S. reached 236,000, down from 245,000 the previous week and higher than the forecast of 229,000.
With this data, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time was lower than the average forecast of experts at 248,000.
This week, investors will continue to monitor the latest unemployment claims data — applicable for the week ending June 28 — as part of a series of important U.S. economic indicators.
The median forecast for this week is 240,000 claims. If the actual number increases, this could signal that the economy is weakening, thus increasing the likelihood that the Fed will shift to a more dovish monetary policy stance.
Such a change could weaken the U.S. dollar, increasing the appeal of Bitcoin as an alternative asset. However, if the rise in jobless claims is only seen as a temporary fluctuation, the impact on Bitcoin may not be significant.
Meanwhile, analysts believe that the labor market remains strong, combined with stubborn inflation, which could keep interest rates high. However, if there are clear signs that the labor market is cooling, that would force the Fed to adjust its policy path.
Non-Farm Payroll
The U.S. employment report, also known as the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) for June 2025, is expected to be released on July 3. In May, the U.S. economy added 139,000 jobs, down from 177,000 jobs recorded in April.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% for both April and May. Notably, the NFP data will be released on Thursday instead of the usual Friday, as this Friday is a holiday in the U.S.
According to data from MarketWatch, economists forecast that the U.S. unemployment rate will rise slightly to 4.3%, while the number of new jobs may decrease to 115,000. This decline partly reflects the potential economic impacts of President Donald Trump's tariff policies.
If job growth remains strong, the Fed may maintain its current monetary policy stance or even consider tightening further, which would strengthen the U.S. dollar and exert downward pressure on Bitcoin.
However, analysts note that the NFP has recorded a positive trend for three consecutive months, and despite data adjustments, they remain not strong enough to significantly impact the market or create notable changes in the labor market.
U.S. Non-Farm Payroll | Source: Capital Flows
However, if fundamental economic concerns force the Fed to shift to a more dovish stance, Bitcoin could benefit as investors seek alternative stores of value.
Analysts say that the job situation in the U.S. is facing many difficulties, as businesses are still waiting for clearer trade policy from the White House while continuously adapting to changes in schedules and deadlines for tariffs.
Bitcoin price movement | Source: Tradingview
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $107,555, down slightly by 0.07% in the past 24 hours.
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