Based on the latest market data and analysis as of June 29, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently exhibiting the following characteristics:
1. Current price and market performance
Price range: The price of Bitcoin today fluctuates between $107,000 and $108,000, with the latest reported price at $107,835, a 24-hour increase of +0.48% (+$513), and the previous day's closing price was $107,352.
Trading volume: The market trading volume is about $29.7 billion, slightly contracted from the previous day but still maintains a healthy level, showing bullish dominance.
2. Technical analysis
Support and resistance levels:
Support levels: First support level at $107,000 (psychological key level), second support level at $106,500 (previous platform), third support level at $105,500 (structural strong support).
Resistance level: The key short-term resistance level is $108,143; if broken, it may test the range of $109,000-$110,000; a higher resistance level is $110,000 (previous high pressure).
Technical indicators:
Moving averages and channels: Price is operating within an ascending channel, short-term moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, VWAP (volume-weighted average price) at $107,642 is an important support reference.
Momentum indicators: MACD shows accumulation of bullish strength, but no signs of overheating; RSI is in the neutral range (around 60), market sentiment is cautiously optimistic.
3. Market sentiment and capital flow
Sentiment index: Fear and greed index is at 65 ('Greed' range), more rational than before, not reaching extreme levels.
Capital flow: Continuous net inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs (accumulated $1.13 billion in June), significant institutional buying on dips; exchange BTC balances have dropped to the lowest since 2020, with long-term holders accounting for over 70%, selling pressure weakening.
4. Short-term trend prediction
Optimistic scenario (25% probability): If there is a volume breakout above $108,143, it may quickly attack the $109,000-$110,000 range.
Baseline scenario (50% probability): Fluctuating in the range of $107,000-$108,500, waiting for a breakout signal.
Pessimistic scenario (25% probability): If it encounters resistance and falls back, it may retrace to the $106,500-$107,000 range, or even test the $105,500 support.
5. Operating suggestions
Short-term strategy: Consider long positions when breaking $108,200 with increased volume; if there is a pullback to support levels and stabilizes, consider light positions for a rebound.
Risk warning: Be cautious of selling pressure near $108,000 and the impact of macro events (such as Federal Reserve policies, U.S. Treasury market fluctuations) on the market.
Summary
Bitcoin is currently in a critical resistance level testing phase, technicals and capital flow support upward potential, but confirmation of a breakout is needed. Investors should pay attention to changes in trading volume and the breakout situation at $108,143 while managing position risks.