The main drop in PEPE's price in June 2025 is due to a combination of technical, market, and behavioral factors. Here are the key reasons confirmed by relevant data:
### 🐋 1. **Mass Sales by Whales (Large Holders)**
- **Transfers to Exchanges**: On June 16, the wallet `qianbaidu.eth` moved **595 billion PEPE** (≈$6.53 million) to Binance, creating selling pressure and leading to profit-taking of $760K.
- **Net Inflow of Tokens**: In the week before the crash, **1.92 trillion PEPE** flowed into exchanges more than was withdrawn, signaling preparation for a sell-off.
- **Asset Concentration**: The top 5 wallets control >70% of PEPE supply, and low liquidity in Uniswap pools (<$4 million) has intensified volatility during their actions.
### 📉 2. **Break of Critical Support Levels**
- **Key Level $0.00000092**: PEPE failed to hold the psychologically important mark, triggering automatic stop-losses and panic selling.
- **Next Target — $0.00000078**: The price is heading towards the 0.618 Fib level (Fibonacci), losing **41%** from the June peak.
- **Technical Indicators**: RSI has dropped to 35 (oversold boundary), but not enough for a reversal, while MACD and Bull Bear Power (BBP) confirmed a downward trend.
### 💥 3. **Market Conditions and External Factors**
- **Capital Rotation into Bitcoin**: BTC dominance rose to **65%**, as investors shifted to 'safe' assets due to geopolitical tensions (Israel and Iran conflict).
- **Declining Interest in Memecoins**: Trading volume of PEPE on Binance has dropped, and the hype following Elon Musk's tweets (April 2025) has faded without new triggers.
- **Competition**: Projects like **Pepeto** (raising $5.3 million in presale) and **Wall Street Ponke** have drawn investor attention away.
### 💸 4. **Futures Liquidations and Retail Trader Panic**
- **Cascading Position Liquidations**: In the 24 hours before the peak drop, long positions worth **$2.44 million** were liquidated, worsening pressure.
- **Whale Dominance in Volumes**: 70–80% of trading on Binance was controlled by large players, while retail traders (<10% influence) exacerbated the trend with panic trades.
### 🔮 Short-Term Forecast
- **Scenarios**:
- *Pessimistic*: A break below $0.00000078 would open the way to $0.00000050 (–40% from the current price).
- *Optimistic*: Holding support and RSI <30 may trigger a correction to $0.00000120, but growth requires volume >$0.00000150.
- **Risks**: The top 15 wallets control 87% of tokens — any sale from them would crash the market.
### 💎 Recommendations for Traders
- **Monitor Whale Wallets**: Through [Lookonchain](https://lookonchain.com/) or [Bubblemaps](https://bubblemaps.io), especially addresses like `qianbaidu.eth`.
- **Watch Exchange Balances**: An increase in reserves on Binance/MEXC signals upcoming sales.
- **Check Macro Trends**: BTC dominance >60% and geopolitics are key drivers of rotation from altcoins.