103236 Life and Death Line Urgent! $BTC Last Defense Line for Bulls
Grayscale ETF Dynamics:
On June 27, actual net outflow of 52 million USD, selling pressure weakened compared to the previous day but still suppressing the price
Whale Activity Verification:
On-chain confirmation of a giant whale depositing 1100 BTC to Binance, valued at approximately 117 million USD
Technical Analysis
Bollinger Bands Accurate Positioning:
Middle Band 107,128 - Current price 107,042 is being suppressed
Lower Band 106,204 - Current weak oscillation bottom
Bandwidth narrowed to 1.2%, narrowing degree exceeds expectations
MACD Death Cross Empirical:
DIF=628.51 broke below DEA=800.33
Histogram -343.64 ≈ 68% of the value before the crash on June 20
Fibonacci Defense Line:
First Defense Line 104,424 - Current order volume accounts for 53% of the entire network
Life and Death Line 103,236 - Breaking below will trigger the $101,000 liquidation zone
Simplified Strategy
Long Position Deeply Stuck
Replenishment Point: 104,424 with long lower shadow and trading volume dropping by 25%
Rebound after replenishment to 106,800 must reduce half position
Stop Loss Iron Rule: Break 103,236 immediately cut positions!
Action Guide for Empty Position Holders
Aggressive: Place ≤5% position long at 104,424, stop loss at 101,400
Take profit at 106,200
Conservative:
Wait for DIF golden cross DEA + 4-hour volume > 1.3 times the daily average volume
Leverage Survival Rules
Short Position Ladder Take Profit:
104,400 close 30% - After breaking 103,236, stop loss moves up to 103,800
Reminder from Sheng Ge
Turning Point Moment: 18:00-20:00
If the price remains below 106,500, it will plummet to 103,000 overnight
Beware of 101,000, where bulls have no risk to guard!
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