Advisor's Hot Topics:
With the ceasefire between Israel and Palestine, a bunch of Federal Reserve officials hinted at rate cuts in the past two days, creating a whirlwind in the market. Sure enough, the NASDAQ soared to a new high, steady as a rock.
What we should be looking at now is not whether it has risen or not, but how high it can rise, where the peak is, and when it will start overflowing. Experienced players who have gone through the 2017 Bitcoin market all understand this; if the vibe is right, it's still the familiar formula.
So it makes sense for Bitcoin to be dormant right now; everyone can look back at that wave at 74K when Bitcoin was more resilient than the NASDAQ, and the rebound was even stronger. So now, core assets should surge first, then set a ceiling. We just need to wait for the funds to overflow.
Returning to the market, Bitcoin has still been in the range of 107K-108K from yesterday until now, with neither bulls nor bears yielding. However, the smaller levels are starting to show lower highs and lower lows, meaning there might be a short-term pullback, and it won't surge immediately. The lower bullish liquidity is the real liquidation target.
Leverage data also indicates something; the leverage ratio of new shorts is higher than that of longs. This shows that this wave is not retail investors pushing against shorts, but rather shorts trying to catch small differences.
Importantly, the spot premium is slowly declining, which means that the selling pressure in the market mainly comes from spot selling, while the buying is still from the contract bulls, who are obviously trying to bottom out and build positions.
However, the funding rate has returned from -0.005% last night to around 0, indicating that the bulls are indeed tentatively opening positions. However, the initial positions are very small, indicating that these bulls are quite cautious, around 5x leverage, with a liquidation zone at 85K-90K, so they can't be easily wiped out in the short term.
To conclude, the overall direction remains bullish. However, there will be pullbacks in the short term, and if it drops, it will just keep dropping. The first liquidation target: 105.5K, the second target: 103K.
For the bulls to turn things around, they need to get the bears to add more positions and trap more people, so they can explode them in the trend. Therefore, as long as the price breaks through 108K and creates a higher small-level peak, it can directly go to liquidate the short liquidity at 109.7K, and even impact the long-term shorts below 111.3K.
The 106.4K spike this morning is a small-level breakout, indicating that the oscillation will have to continue for a few more rounds. The next key point to watch is the 4-hour level; when the 107K-108K range can break, if it breaks down, then the trend will start.
Advisor's Trend Analysis:
Resistance level reference:
Second resistance level: 108700
First resistance level: 108000
Support level reference:
Second support level: 106600
First support level: 105500
Currently, Bitcoin is still oscillating within the range, repeatedly moving up and down, and has basically recovered yesterday's decline. At the 1-hour level, it is currently in a downward channel after an increase.
This pattern can be seen as a bullish flag, belonging to a consolidation structure in an uptrend. If it holds the previous low of 106.6K, the probability of the bullish flag forming will further increase.
The first resistance level at 108K is the current key resistance range. Whether it breaks through depends on whether the trading volume increases. If there is no increase in volume, the extent of the breakout will be limited.
Before testing 108K, if it can break the upper trendline of the flag pattern, the possibility of further upward movement will increase. However, if the trading volume is small, the pattern may be delayed in verification.
The first support at 106.6K is an important low point that was held at yesterday's close and is also a previous low position. If it tests again, it can serve as a phase bottom; it is also recommended to pay attention to the 105.5K area as a strategy for gradual accumulation.
On the short term, pay attention to the 20-day and 60-day moving averages at the 1-hour level, as these two moving averages currently provide short-term support. If 106.6K is lost, it will trigger stronger downward momentum, which is also a potential opportunity for ultra-short-term longs.
6.27 Advisor's Wave Strategy:
Long entry reference: Not applicable at the moment.
Short entry reference: Short in batches in the 108000-108700 range. Target: 106600-105500.
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you have to keep following them, rather than jumping to conclusions after just a few market views. This market is filled with performing players, taking screenshots of long positions today, summarizing short positions tomorrow, seemingly 'catching tops and bottoms every time,' but in reality, it's all just hindsight. A truly noteworthy blogger's trading logic must be consistent, coherent, and withstand scrutiny, rather than jumping in when the market moves. Don't be blinded by exaggerated data and disjointed screenshots; only through long-term observation and deep understanding can you distinguish who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
