Traditional views hold that the crypto market's surge must rely on the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, but the logic of this bull market has fundamentally changed—global tech giants are becoming de facto "on-chain central banks" by issuing stablecoins, continuously bringing funds from the traditional financial system into the crypto world. This article will reveal how stablecoins reconstruct the capital flow mechanism of the crypto market, and why the core driving force of this bull market is no longer Federal Reserve policy, but rather the "stablecoin revolution" led by tech companies like Amazon, JD.com, and Apple.
Limitations of traditional logic: Why the impact of interest rate cuts on the crypto market is weakening
Over the past decade, the cryptocurrency market has shown a high correlation with Federal Reserve monetary policy, with "Federal Reserve easing = crypto market surge" almost becoming a market consensus. The core of this correlation lies in: in a rate-cutting environment, the cost of funds in traditional financial systems decreases, and some "hot money" flows into high-risk, high-return crypto assets. The bull market of 2020-2021 is a typical case—when the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to zero and initiated unlimited quantitative easing, Bitcoin soared from $3,800 to $69,000.
However, this mechanism has three fundamental flaws:
1. Low transmission efficiency: Funds in traditional financial systems need to pass through multiple intermediaries (banks, brokers, exchanges) to enter the crypto market, with friction loss accompanying each conversion;
2. Policy uncontrollability: The cryptocurrency circle is completely passively dependent on Federal Reserve decisions, as evidenced by the market crash caused by aggressive interest rate hikes in 2022;
3. Capacity ceiling: A market driven solely by speculative funds is unlikely to support the evolution of cryptocurrencies into a trillion-dollar asset class.
More critically, this model fails to address the biggest pain point of the crypto economy—lack of a native capital creation mechanism. Traditional financial markets have central banks as the "lender of last resort" and liquidity providers, while the crypto world has long been in a state of "blood transfusion dependency."
The paradigm shift of stablecoins: How tech giants become "on-chain central banks"
The global regulatory breakthroughs in 2025 have completely changed this situation. The United States established a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins through the (GENIUS Act), while China allowed tech companies like JD.com and Alibaba to issue compliant stablecoins through pilot programs in Hong Kong. This marks the acquisition of a "currency creation mechanism" for the crypto economy, operated by global tech giants.
The essence of stablecoin issuance is the cross-chain bridging of funds: When JD.com issues 100 million Hong Kong dollar stablecoins, it means that 100 million Hong Kong dollars of fiat currency is transferred from the traditional banking system to a blockchain custodial account, while an equivalent amount of crypto assets is created out of thin air on-chain. This process achieves three breakthroughs:
- Capital efficiency revolution: Cross-border payment costs reduced from 6% to 0.001%, and settlement times shortened from days to seconds;
- Regulatory compliance: The 100% reserve requirement and monthly audit requirements eliminate the risk of "naked issuance";
- Scene penetration: Stablecoins can be directly used for e-commerce payments, supply chain finance, and other real economy scenarios.
The unique advantages of tech companies make them the best issuers of stablecoins:
1. User base: JD.com has 580 million active users globally, naturally forming stablecoin usage scenarios;
2. Cross-border network: Amazon and Alibaba's globally covering supply chain systems require efficient cross-border settlement tools;
3. Technological reserve: Leading tech companies have built a complete blockchain infrastructure.
Data perspective: How stablecoins reconstruct the capital pattern of the crypto market
The current market size for stablecoins has reached 2.4 trillion dollars, with nearly 200 billion dollars invested in U.S. government bonds. Even more astonishing is the growth potential—analysts predict that within the next two years, the demand for compliant stablecoins for short-term U.S. government bonds could reach 1.6 trillion dollars. Such a scale of capital inflow will have three levels of impact:
Primary market (issuance layer):
- For every 1 dollar of stablecoin issued by tech companies, 1 dollar of fiat currency is locked in reserve accounts;
- Most of these funds are allocated as cash or short-term government bonds, forming a "on-chain currency base";
- The larger the issuance, the more abundant the basic currency supply of the crypto economy.
Secondary market (circulation layer):
- Stablecoins become the "highway" connecting traditional finance and DeFi;
- According to estimates, 1 dollar stablecoin generates an average of 5-7 dollars of on-chain credit in DeFi protocols;
- This currency multiplier effect significantly amplifies the efficiency of fund utilization.
Tertiary market (asset prices):
- About 30% of newly added stablecoins will be directly converted into crypto assets such as BTC and ETH;
- Q1 2025 data shows that the inflow of stablecoins is correlated with Bitcoin prices at 0.87;
- The "scenario-based stablecoins" issued by tech companies have stronger purchasing power stickiness than traditional stablecoins.
East-West game: The new geopolitical dimension of stablecoins
Behind this transformation is the covert battle for technological financial hegemony between China and the United States. The United States, through the (GENIUS Act), requires stablecoins to have 100% dollar reserves, effectively institutionalizing the on-chain dollar system; China, on the other hand, leverages Hong Kong's policies to encourage companies like JD.com to issue stablecoins pegged to the Hong Kong dollar, establishing a "Digital Renminbi + Stablecoin" dual-track system.
The institutional advantages of the United States:
- Establishing a federal-level regulatory framework for stablecoins, clarifying issuance rules;
- Requiring reserves to be in USD cash or short-term U.S. government bonds strengthens the dollar peg;
- Attracting global stablecoin issuers to choose the U.S. compliance path through "regulatory arbitrage."
China's scenario breakthroughs:
- JD.com's stablecoin is directly embedded in cross-border trade scenarios, forming a "payment-financing" closed loop;
- The rapid approval mechanism of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (as fast as 120 days) is more efficient than the EU's MiCA;
- The "Digital Renminbi exchange for stablecoins" model may become the new standard for cross-border payments.
This competition has objectively accelerated the issuance of stablecoins. In order to seize market share, tech companies in both the East and West are racing to expand the scale of stablecoin issuance—this amounts to a "quantitative easing competition" on-chain, with the crypto market being the biggest beneficiary.
Investment insights: How to seize the new bull market driven by stablecoins
After understanding this paradigm shift, investors need to adjust their strategic framework:
Focus on changes in core indicators:
- Transitioning from "Federal Reserve balance sheet size" to "total supply of compliant stablecoins";
- Focus on monitoring the "digital asset custody scale" in tech companies' quarterly financial reports;
- Track "stablecoin turnover rate" and "DeFi protocol deposit amount" in on-chain data.
Layout benefiting sectors:
1. Stablecoin infrastructure: Custodian banks, auditing firms, compliance technology service providers;
2. On-chain liquidity protocols: Decentralized exchanges, lending platforms, derivative protocols;
3. Compliance entry projects: Licensed exchanges and institutional-grade custodial solutions.
Beware of new risks:
- The potential short-term liquidity shocks that may arise from the shrinking space for regulatory arbitrage;
- The "anchoring quality differences" between different stablecoins will exacerbate market differentiation;
- The financial risks of tech companies are increasingly coupled with the credit of their stablecoins.
Future outlook: When all companies become "banks"
The ultimate picture of this transformation may be the arrival of the Corporate Monetization era. When Apple, Tesla, and Tencent all issue their own stablecoins, the monetary creation function of traditional commercial banks will be completely deconstructed. At that time:
- Corporate balance sheets will be directly connected to the blockchain;
- Supply chain finance achieves "order financing" with second-level turnover;
- Personal wealth management enters the "multi-stablecoin asset allocation" phase.
In this process, the crypto market will complete the transformation from "marginal speculative market" to "mainstream financial infrastructure." And driving this transformation is no longer the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, but the continuously growing issuance of stablecoins under the fingers of tech companies—this is the key cognitive shift to understanding this bull market.
