【Countdown to the Dollar Crisis? Trump May Announce Successor Early, Powell's Authority May Be 'Cut in Half'!】
If Trump reveals the new Federal Reserve chair candidate before September, Powell's authority may instantly 'evaporate', and the dollar might slide from 'weak' to 'collapse'!
What does this mean? The remaining six interest rate decisions during Powell's term will be made under the 'shadow of the successor', leading to more chaotic market signals and potentially undermining policy effectiveness.
Market expectations have become subtle:
Current estimate for the July 30 rate cut probability is 25%
If Powell remains inactive again (for the fifth consecutive time), it could very well anger Trump, prompting him to intervene in Federal Reserve matters early.
Once 'political intervention' is confirmed, the Federal Reserve's independence will face unprecedented scrutiny! This will not only impact confidence in the dollar but also open up possibilities for hedging assets like Bitcoin!
Future pathways:
1️⃣ If Powell continues with a dovish stance → Trump changes leadership early → Dollar bleeds
2️⃣ If Powell is forced to pivot to easing → Bitcoin or gold may surge
3️⃣ Markets face the dual risk of 'personnel changes + policy ambiguity'
Global finance is entering a new cycle of 'power struggle + trust imbalance', with a dollar storm brewing; Bitcoin may once again become a safe haven for capital. Remember, real opportunities always lie between the vacuum of power and the cracks of confidence!
