#比特币 Bitcoin has once again approached historical highs amidst fluctuations, giving the market the illusion of a bullish return breaking new highs. The medal published a long article at the end of last month explaining the need to maintain a bearish outlook on Bitcoin. Currently, there is some short-term rally, but the medal believes this does not affect the continued bearish viewpoint. The previous article has already discussed the argument that the daily line has broken the MA60 trend line, establishing a bearish foundation. The short-term rally has been compared with the peak trends from the end of last year and the beginning of this year in three stages, showing very similar fluctuation patterns. The current third stage of the increase overlaps with the rally wave from January 14 of this year, indicating consistent maneuvering by the main force. After breaking the MA60 in mid-January, a rapid consecutive rise was used to lead the market to be bullish, with the highest point slightly exceeding previous highs, creating an illusion of completely opening up technical space above, before initiating a mid-term decline lasting 35000 USD.
The purpose of the main force operating this way is to lead the market to be bullish. After pushing to a high position, they can continuously sell off at a good price, leaving enough room for downward selling. The medal believes that the current trend belongs to the final overlapping stage of mid-January. Therefore, regarding participation in entry, it is still not recommended to take long positions betting on a breakout, as the profit for going long under historical key pressure is small, the potential for a pullback is large, and the risk-reward ratio is not favorable. As for how to participate in this process, the medal believes it can be done by hypothetically seeing a peak and participating in segments, holding a portion of short positions first, and then making a compensatory order after breaking new highs to wait. This way, a medium to long-term short position can be held until it goes below 100,000 USD.
Currently, Bitcoin is priced at 109300 USD, and 99% of Bitcoin holdings are in a profitable state. This situation can easily lead to an increase in selling volume, as retail investors and institutions will first sell some of their positions and wait for the trend to unfold. Even if there is a genuine rally breaking new highs later, if it can remain stable and not fall, it indicates that the upward space can open up, and then it is not too late to participate in mainstream coins waiting for a rebound. If it cannot remain stable, it means that a long decline above 30,000 USD will occur.
Risk Warning: Due to the similarity of this rebound to the methods used in mid-January, in order to maximize the attraction of long positions to lead buying sentiment, the main force is likely to employ the same techniques to push prices to new highs. This means that prices exceeding 112000 USD would not be surprising; at that time, avoid chasing long positions and instead enter with low-leverage short positions.
In terms of specific entry points, to avoid a failed breakout at new highs and to respond after breaking new highs, it is recommended to enter short positions in the range of 109600-110600, to add to short positions in the range of 112000-113000, with a stop loss at 114000 USD. For short-term targets, look at 106500 and 105000; for medium-short term, look at 103000 USD; for medium-term, look below 98000 USD.$BTC 
