🌞6.25 Today's Market Analysis！！！
Good morning, brothers.
Last night, the market experienced a rapid rise, quickly correcting itself.
In terms of news:
1. Iran and Israel have reached a ceasefire agreement. Although there are still sporadic frictions, the Iranian president has publicly stated that Iran is ready to return to the negotiating table. This statement has directly eased geopolitical tensions.
2. From the Federal Reserve, Chairman Powell released a dovish signal yesterday: if inflation stabilizes, they will consider an early interest rate cut.
However, the current challenge is that the unemployment rate may not rise quickly due to changes in immigration policy leading to significant job vacancies. The local labor force in the U.S. is filling these "low-wage labor" jobs, thus maintaining a low unemployment rate, which constrains interest rate cuts in the short term. However, if prices show a significant decline, it may trigger an early rate cut. From a macro perspective, we are still in a clear historical interest rate cut cycle, which is the market's main line in the medium to long term.
In this context:
1. Altcoins will struggle to maintain strength; mainstream coins, especially BTC, will perform more steadily due to policy expectations; Bitcoin has stronger certainty and is currently the most worthy asset to focus on.
On the positive news front:
2. One of the top brokerages in mainland China—Guotai Junan's Hong Kong institution—has officially been approved to provide trading services for cryptocurrencies and other virtual assets. This is a clear policy signal, indicating that the integration of traditional finance and the crypto market is accelerating. It is worth keeping an eye on whether the mainland will gradually open up in the future.
Operational advice:
At this stage, it is recommended to continue focusing on ETH long positions, proceeding steadily;
Altcoins should be limited to within 20% of total positions;
The market has just completed a panic washout, and the next phase should focus on the leading rhythm of mainstream coins.
