🌞6.25 Market Analysis！！！
Good morning, brothers.
Last night, the market experienced a deep V reversal, with a rapid recovery.
On the news front:
Iran and Israel have reached a ceasefire agreement. Although there are still sporadic frictions, the Iranian president publicly stated that Iran is prepared to return to the negotiating table. This statement directly eased geopolitical tensions.
Regarding the Federal Reserve, Chairman Powell signaled a dovish stance yesterday: if inflation stabilizes, consideration will be given to lowering interest rates ahead of schedule.
However, the current challenge is that the unemployment rate may not rise quickly due to changes in immigration policy leading to a large number of job vacancies, which local American labor is filling in these "low-wage labor" jobs, thus maintaining a low unemployment rate. This constrains the possibility of interest rate cuts in the short term.
However, if prices show a significant decline, it could trigger an early rate cut.
From a macro perspective, we are still in a clear historical rate-cutting cycle, which is the main theme of the market in the medium to long term.
In this context:
Altcoins will struggle to maintain strong performance; mainstream coins, especially BTC, will perform more robustly due to policy expectations; Bitcoin has stronger certainty and is currently the most worthwhile asset to focus on.
On the positive news front:
One of the leading securities firms in mainland China—Guotai Junan's Hong Kong institution—has officially been approved to provide trading services for cryptocurrencies and other virtual assets.
This is a clear policy signal, indicating that the integration of traditional finance and the crypto market is accelerating. It is worth keeping an eye on whether mainland China will gradually open up in the future.
Operational Suggestions:
At this stage, it is recommended to continue focusing on BTC, steadily and cautiously;
Altcoins should be controlled within 30% of the total position;
The market has just completed a panic washout, and the next phase should focus on the leading rhythm of mainstream coins.
Intra-day focus: $NEWT $BANANAS31 $SEI
