#ShareYourThoughtOnBTC
✨ Bitcoin surpasses $105,000: Bubble or financial refuge?
By Roy Espinoza – Statistical Engineer
📈 This week, Bitcoin (BTC) has exceeded $105,000 USD for the first time in history. Many see it as a speculative bubble... but from a statistical perspective, we can read something very different: a solid trend driven by the global geopolitical context and the search for financial refuges.
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🔍 Technical analysis from statistics
Applying a stochastic model of Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM), we obtain the following:
• Average daily return (μ) ≈ 2.7%
• Daily volatility (σ) ≈ 4.5%
📊 Simulating 10,000 trajectories with initial prices of $105,934:
Percentile. Estimated price (June 30)
25%. $101,200
50%. $108,600
75%. $116,800
The probability of staying above $100,000 this week is 80%.
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🌍 Global context driving this rally
• Growing military conflict in the Middle East (Iran–Israel–U.S.)
• Political and fiscal instability in the U.S.
• Possible interest rate cuts by the FED
• Growing institutional demand (funds, ETFs, and private holdings)
🔐 Bitcoin consolidates as a macroeconomic refuge, not just a speculative asset.
🧠 Final reflection
As a statistical engineer, I see in BTC more than just numbers. I see a signal of the shift in global confidence. The market is not only seeking returns: it is seeking stability and sovereignty.
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