Anndy Lian
Hope or hype? Trump’s ceasefire claim and the future of gold, oil and Bitcoin
US President Donald Trump’s recent announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, a development that has injected a dose of optimism into markets worldwide. I find this situation fascinating, not just for its immediate market implications, but for the broader questions it raises about stability, investor sentiment, and the evolving role of cryptocurrencies in times of uncertainty.
The ceasefire announcement: A fragile hope
President Trump took to Truth Social to declare that Israel and Iran had agreed to a “complete and total ceasefire,” set to take effect within approximately six hours of his post, following the completion of their ongoing military operations. “CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE!” he wrote, suggesting that after a 12-hour pause, the war would be considered “ENDED!”
The announcement came after days of intense conflict, including US forces bombing Iranian nuclear sites late Saturday, which had sent shockwaves through global markets over the weekend. If true, this ceasefire could mark a turning point in the Middle East, potentially easing tensions that have kept investors on edge.
The optimism sparked by Trump’s words is tempered by significant uncertainty. Neither Israel nor Iran has publicly confirmed their acceptance of this ceasefire timeline, a silence that casts doubt on its legitimacy. Even more concerning, Iran retaliated against the US on Monday with missile strikes on American military bases in Qatar and Iraq. This action suggests that, far from winding down, tensions remain very much alive.
From my perspective, this lack of confirmation and the retaliatory strikes are red flags. Trump’s announcement may reflect his administration’s aspirations or perhaps a diplomatic push, but without buy-in from the key players, it’s premature to call this a done deal. Markets, however, didn’t wait for confirmation to react, and that’s where the story gets interesting.
Market reactions: A surge of optimism
The financial markets wasted no time in responding to the ceasefire news. On Monday, US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 0.89 per cent, the S&P 500 gaining 0.96 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite rising 0.94 per cent. This rally suggests that investors were eager to shake off the escalating tensions in the Middle East and embrace the possibility of de-escalation.
Asian equities followed suit, opening higher on Tuesday, and US equity index futures pointed to further gains at the opening bell. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil prices dropped sharply by 7.18 per cent to settle at US$71.48 per barrel, reflecting reduced fears of supply disruptions in the oil-rich region.
Safe-haven assets told a slightly different story. Gold prices edged up by 0.5 per cent to US$3,384.59 per ounce, indicating that some investors remain cautious despite the ceasefire news. US Treasury yields, another barometer of risk sentiment, extended their losses, with the 10-year yield falling about 4 basis points to 4.33 per cent and the two-year yield dropping roughly six basis points to 3.84 per cent.
The US Dollar Index also weakened, declining 0.29 per cent to 98.42. These movements suggest a mixed sentiment: while equity markets leaned into the optimism, bond and currency traders hedged their bets, perhaps wary of the ceasefire’s uncertain foundation.
As someone who’s watched markets ebb and flow with geopolitical headlines, I see this reaction as a classic case of hope driving momentum, tempered by a healthy dose of skepticism. The equity gains and oil price drop align with the idea that a ceasefire could stabilise the region, but the uptick in gold and decline in yields hint at lingering doubts. If the ceasefire holds, we could see this optimism solidify; if it falters, those safe-haven trades might intensify.
The crypto angle: Bitcoin’s wild ride
Nowhere was the market’s reaction more dramatic than in the cryptocurrency space. Bitcoin, the leading digital asset, surged five per cent on Monday evening following Trump’s announcement, climbing to US$105,550 according to CoinGecko data. This spike nearly erased a weekend decline that saw Bitcoin fall below US$100,000 after the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sites.
By the end of the weekend, it had started to recover, crossing back above US$100,000, but the ceasefire news turbocharged that rebound. At US$105,000, Bitcoin is within striking distance of its Friday levels, showcasing its sensitivity to geopolitical developments.
This volatility fascinates me. Crypto markets often amplify the emotional swings of traditional markets, and this is evident here in full force. The weekend drop reflected fear and uncertainty as conflict escalated; the Monday surge mirrored the hope of de-escalation.
However, given the ceasefire’s shaky footing—Iran’s missile strikes occurred after Trump’s tweet—I wouldn’t be surprised if Bitcoin’s price swings again. Crypto’s reputation for volatility isn’t undeserved, and in a situation this fluid, it’s a high-stakes bet for investors. That said, the broader trend of institutional interest in Bitcoin, exemplified by moves like ProCap BTC’s, suggests that some see it as more than just a speculative play. Let’s explore that next.
ProCap BTC: A bold bet on Bitcoin
Amid this geopolitical turbulence, Anthony Pompliano’s ProCap BTC has made headlines with its plan to go public via a merger with Columbus Circle Capital. The new entity has already raised US$750 million from investors, aiming to build a Bitcoin treasury worth up to US$1 billion.
This is a significant move, signalling strong confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value as a store of value and a hedge against uncertainty. Adding to the momentum, Strategy, another player in the space, announced it had bolstered its treasury with 245 BTC, valued at US$26 million.
Pompliano, a well-known crypto advocate, is doubling down on Bitcoin at a time when traditional markets are grappling with geopolitical risks and economic shifts. Raising US$750 million to stockpile Bitcoin isn’t just a financial play. It’s a statement about where he sees the future of money heading. The fact that Strategy is also adding to its holdings reinforces this trend: institutional adoption of Bitcoin is growing, even as prices gyrate with the news cycle.
For me, this raises a question: are these firms betting on Bitcoin’s resilience regardless of the ceasefire’s outcome, or do they see stability in the Middle East as a catalyst for broader crypto adoption? Either way, it’s a bold move that could pay off handsomely or expose them to significant risk if the market turns.
The Fed’s role: Adding another layer
No analysis of market dynamics would be complete without considering the Federal Reserve. On Monday, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, speaking at the 2025 International Journal of Central Banking Conference, hinted at a possible interest rate cut at the next policy meeting in July, contingent on inflation remaining subdued.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also set to testify before the House Committee on Financial Services, presenting “The Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report.” His remarks could shed more light on the Fed’s thinking, especially in the context of these geopolitical developments.
Bowman’s comments caught my attention because they suggest the Fed is keeping its options open. Lower interest rates could boost riskier assets, such as stocks and cryptocurrencies, by reducing the appeal of yield-bearing investments like bonds. Bitcoin, often compared to gold as a non-yielding asset, could benefit particularly if rates drop.
But the Fed’s calculus isn’t isolated from the Middle East situation. If the ceasefire collapses and oil prices spike, inflation could resurface, forcing the Fed to reconsider its stance. For now, the prospect of a rate cut adds a tailwind to the market’s optimism, but it’s a wildcard that depends on how events unfold.
My take: Optimism with eyes wide open
So, where do I land on all this? I’m cautiously optimistic but acutely aware of the risks. Trump’s ceasefire announcement has undeniably lifted global risk sentiment, and the market’s response—rising stocks, falling oil prices, and a surge in Bitcoin reflects a collective sigh of relief.
The idea that the worst of the Middle East conflict might be behind us is appealing, and if the ceasefire sticks, it could pave the way for a more stable economic environment. Lower tensions could ease supply chain pressures, keep inflation in check, and give the Fed room to cut rates, all of which would be bullish for markets.
But I can’t ignore the cracks in this narrative. Iran’s missile strikes and the silence from both Israel and Iran make me skeptical that this conflict is truly over. Geopolitical resolutions are rarely this tidy, and the Middle East has a way of defying expectations. If the ceasefire unravels, we could see a swift reversal—oil prices jumping, equities tumbling, and Bitcoin caught in the crossfire. The safe-haven demand for gold and Treasuries hints that I’m not alone in this concern.
For crypto specifically, I’m intrigued by the resilience on display. Bitcoin’s quick recovery and ProCap BTC’s ambitious plans suggest that the asset class is maturing, attracting players who view it as a long-term investment rather than a short-term gamble. Yet, its volatility reminds us that it’s still a young market, prone to overreacting to headlines. I admire Pompliano’s conviction, but I’d be nervous about such a heavy Bitcoin allocation until the dust settles in the Middle East.
Looking ahead: A critical juncture
The next few days will be pivotal. If Israel and Iran signal their commitment to the ceasefire—perhaps through a pause in hostilities or official statements—the market’s optimism could solidify, potentially driving further gains. Conversely, any escalation, like additional Iranian strikes or Israeli counterattacks, could unravel the progress we’ve seen.
Beyond the immediate geopolitics, Powell’s testimony and the Fed’s broader outlook will shape expectations, while ProCap BTC’s public debut will test the crypto market’s appetite for institutional-scale investment.
The ceasefire could serve as a stepping stone to stability, boosting global markets and solidifying crypto’s place in the financial ecosystem. Or it could be a false dawn, exposing investors to another wave of volatility. For now, the data points to hope—but history teaches us to keep our eyes open.
Source: https://e27.co/hope-or-hype-trumps-ceasefire-claim-and-the-future-of-gold-oil-and-bitcoin-20250624/
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