I was speechless when I saw the news last night.
I've never seen someone notify before attacking, especially choosing a place where no one is around; Iran is indeed a mess!
As for the U.S. side, they are still powerful; if it weren't for U.S. intervention, the situation in the Middle East would likely not have resolved so quickly. They fought fiercely before, but once a strong country intervenes, everyone is afraid and backs off. It's safe to say that the big players are indeed big players!
Trump also specifically thanked Iran for the advance notice, which is really a mix of mockery and sarcasm. Isn’t this an open historical joke!
After the situation in the Middle East has settled, the Federal Reserve has openly signaled a dovish stance, with the earliest rate cut in July becoming a recent trend.
Bowman and Goolsbee both hinted that if inflationary pressures are controlled, they will support a rate cut in July.
All three major U.S. stock indexes rose, Bitcoin increased by 3.21%, Ethereum rose by 5.96%, and the crypto market was directly dominated by bulls.
Last night's market was driven directly by news, originally showing a clear bearish trend. At the turning point, shorts had already dipped to around 99500/2180, then the market corrected again, briefly rebounding to 102000.
Yumi mentioned early this morning that if it stabilizes at 102000, it would test the 104000 level, and sure enough, the market tested that around 3 AM, followed by positive news of a ceasefire in the Middle East, with the short-term market rising again to around 106000.
Yumi's short position from last night was exited safely at the turning point, achieving a profit of 5696 for Bitcoin and 263 for Ethereum. The subsequent plan to enter high leverage was interrupted, and after the market continued to rise, Yumi turned bullish, looking at 104000-104800, and made another short-term profit this morning, achieving 4630 for Bitcoin and 110 for Ethereum.
Last night’s short position on Silk Road.
Short-term trading transition in the early morning.
Key news:
1. Trump announced that Israel and Iran have fully agreed and will achieve a comprehensive ceasefire.
2. Iran has only struck one U.S. base in the Middle East (U.S. officials stated it missed and there were no casualties), and there are no signs of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing crude oil to plummet over 9%.
3. Trump stated that the war would be considered over in 12 hours. Iran will first initiate a ceasefire, followed by Israel after the 12-hour mark, and 24 hours later, the world will pay tribute to the formal end of this 12-day war. During each ceasefire, both sides will maintain peace and respect.
4. Senior Iranian officials confirmed that Tehran has agreed to a ceasefire agreement with Israel mediated by Qatar, proposed by the U.S.
5. The Texas state government will allocate $10 million for purchasing Bitcoin.
6. The cumulative trading volume of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has surpassed $1 trillion.
Today's focus:
21:00, ECB President Lagarde will give a speech.
21:15, 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester will speak on monetary policy.
Fed Chair Powell will deliver semi-annual monetary policy report testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Any hawkish remarks from Powell will dampen market expectations for a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by the Fed before the end of the year.
22:00, U.S. June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, market expectation is 99.8, previous value was 98.
22:00, U.S. June Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, previous value was -9.
22:00, Bank of England Governor Bailey will attend the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee meeting.
22:15, 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester will participate in a panel discussion at the Barclays-Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) monetary policy forum.
The next day at 00:30, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will give a speech.
Currently, the market is still following old patterns, with Bitcoin showing a corrective recovery phase. Yesterday's bearish trend has now reversed. Tonight, Fed officials will speak, and the probability of a rate cut in July has significantly increased.
Whether this trend is confirmed in the evening needs further attention. If there is positive news tonight, the market will likely continue to rise, with short-term resistance at 108000/2500 and support at 103000/2320.
