Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours

Technical Key Levels:

* Lifeline: $98,000 (On-chain whale liquidation threshold + sovereign fund support zone)

* Rebound Resistance: $101,500 (CME futures gap + Grayscale reduction average price)

* Breakout Target: $96,000 (Weekly descending channel lower bound + miner cost line)

* On-chain Signals: 3,200 BTC buy orders in the $98,000-$99,000 range, but Binance's active sell orders account for 51.27%.

Bullish and Bearish Catalysts:

* Bullish: Easing of the situation in Iran, Tether issuance funds actually entering the market, whale support orders exceeding 5,000 BTC

* Bearish: Disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 hours, Grayscale GBTC outflow exceeding $400 million in a single day

Probability Distribution:

* Consolidation and Bottoming (between $98,000-$101,500): 50% (Geopolitical risks diminishing + oversold recovery demand)

* Rebound to $103,000: 30% (Requires USDT issuance funds to enter + short covering exceeding $600 million)

* Waterfall drop below $96,000: 20% (If Iran implements a comprehensive blockade + chain reaction of long position liquidations)

Operational Strategy:

'Fear Index' Historical Rule: When the index < 40, the probability of rebound within 3 days reaches 68%

* Current Price $100,600: Mainly wait and see, if it breaks $101,500, lightly chase long (target $103,000, stop loss $99,800)

* Break below $98,000: Reverse to short down to $96,500 (stop loss $99,200, requires 1-hour trading volume > $1.8 billion)