According to the latest market data and analysis as of June 21, 2025, the current trend of Bitcoin (BTC) shows the following characteristics:

1. Current Price and Fluctuation Range

Current Price: Bitcoin is fluctuating between $103,227 and $103,800, down slightly by about 0.20%-1.26% from the previous trading day.

Intraday Fluctuations: Today's lowest touched $102,285, highest rebounded to $104,573, overall in a narrow fluctuation range of $102,000-$104,500.

2. Technical Analysis

Support and Resistance Levels:

Key Support: $102,000-$103,400 (recent low and psychological level), if broken may drop to $100,600.

Key Resistance: $105,100-$106,500 (line of division between long and short and previous highs), a breakout may open a rebound channel.

Technical Indicators:

RSI: The 14-day RSI is 41.245 (neutral to weak), indicating a short-term overselling risk.

MACD: Daily level death cross, weak momentum, balance of long and short forces.

Trading Volume: 24-hour trading volume has dropped to $47.8 billion, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

3. Market Sentiment and Funding

Sentiment Indicator: Fear and Greed Index is at 49 (neutral), with significant long and short divergence.

Capital Flow: Continuous net inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs, but the momentum is slowing; on-chain trading volume has dropped to an 18-month low, indicating a cooling off of speculative enthusiasm.

Leverage Risk: Perpetual contract funding rates remain high (0.03%/8h), and sudden liquidation fluctuations should be monitored.

4. Influencing Factors

Macroeconomic Environment: Uncertainty in Federal Reserve policy, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and global inflation expectations suppress market risk appetite.

Institutional Dynamics: Institutions like MicroStrategy continue to increase holdings, traditional finance (e.g., BBVA) recommends allocating 3-7% to crypto assets, providing long-term support.

5. Short-term Trend Prediction

Baseline Scenario (60% Probability): Continue to fluctuate in the range of $103,000-$104,500, waiting for a breakout signal.

Optimistic Scenario (20% Probability): If it breaks above $105,500, it may challenge above $106,500.

Pessimistic Scenario (20% Probability): After breaking the support at $102,000, may drop to $100,600.

6. Operation Suggestions

Short-term Strategy: Sell high and buy low within the range (Long: $103,100-$103,400; Short: $104,000-$104,800), with strict stop-loss.

Medium to Long-Term Layout: If it stabilizes above $105,500, consider increasing positions, targeting $130,000; otherwise, maintain a 10-20% position and observe.

Summary

Bitcoin is currently in a game stage of oscillating downward and potential reversal, with a technical bias towards bearishness but signs of accumulation at low levels in the funding aspect. Investors need to pay attention to the breakthrough situation of the support level at $103,400 and the resistance level at $105,500, while also being alert to changes in macro policies and market sentiment.