On June 20, PANews reported that Singapore's crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated that global markets are maintaining a wait-and-see attitude as investors assess geopolitical risks and the potential for a rebound in volatility. Gold surged and then retreated after the June 13 Israeli attack, weakening safe-haven demand, while WTI crude oil prices remain firm at the $75 level. The energy market continues to be impacted by the Israel-Iran conflict, with increasing speculation about potential U.S. military involvement. The dollar has weakened slightly as investors bet on the rising probability of direct U.S. participation in regional conflicts within the next 48 hours, leading to a moderate withdrawal of funds from the dollar. In the cryptocurrency space, BTC continues its sideways movement. Despite increasing macro uncertainty and the political noise from Trump’s social media remarks, price volatility remains subdued. Market sentiment is cautious, with positioning data showing investors waiting for clearer catalysts.
The risk reversal indicators for BTC and ETH show that investors in the June and September contracts are more inclined to hedge against downside risks, indicating that bulls are actively protecting their spot positions. Notably, the implied volatility of ETH's at-the-money options for June has fallen below that of the September contracts, reflecting a contraction in short-term specific risk premium, which may be related to the reduction of event-driven hedging or short-term volatility profit-taking. In contrast, the near-month contracts for BTC still maintain a slight volatility premium. The current cryptocurrency market remains in a state of anticipation, where the next headline, macro shift, or tail event could trigger historically significant volatility.
