Since the drop from 109k, BTC has likely entered a wide range fluctuation mode: first oscillating down to around 90k, then starting the C wave decline, with a target of 63k. It is expected to oscillate in the 63-77k range for 2-3 months before entering the second wave of the bull market acceleration.

Decline logic analysis:

1. Technical aspects and liquidity demand: 63k is an important Fibonacci support level, which also corresponds to a temporary low point in market liquidity.

2. Potential black swan risks:

◦ Escalation of geopolitical conflicts (e.g., expansion of Middle Eastern conflicts)

◦ Changes in trade policies (such as increased tariffs)

◦ Delayed impact of macro data (the delayed shock of tariffs on the economy)