Why is it not recommended to short BCH? Three major logic points reveal the risks of strong controlling coins

1. Establishment of a monthly level main upward trend

BCH has currently formed a monthly level main upward structure, technically breaking through multiple resistance levels, with a clear medium to long-term upward trend. Once a trend of this level is established, shorting in the short term faces trend-related risks.

2. Significant characteristics of long-term institutional positioning

From the distribution of chips, BCH's main force has been in the accumulation phase for nearly 1-2 years, especially in the last two months where market funds have rotated, in sharp contrast to major currencies like SOL that have been offloaded. Under strong control, shorting is susceptible to being countered by funds.

3. Historical cases serve as warnings: after a washout, a surge may occur

Referring to the soaring trend of XRP after its oscillation washout from 2018 to 2024, the long-term consolidation of BCH since 2017 may be a buildup for an explosive move. If a similar trend reoccurs, high-leverage short sellers will face the risk of liquidation.

To summarize: for coins that are strongly controlled and in an upward trend, shorting should be cautious of the dual risks of "trend + liquidity" to avoid blindly mirroring the trading logic of weaker coins.