Yesterday, the U.S. stock market was closed for a holiday, and global key stock markets, except for Taiwan's weighted index, saw significant declines. Although the U.S. stock market was closed, the futures market also experienced a nearly 1% drop. If one had to find a reason for the decline, the traditional explanation is that with the U.S. stock market closed, the market lacks direction, causing investors to withdraw liquidity, leading to a sell-off. However, the consensus in the market is that the situation in the Middle East is likely to escalate over the weekend, so there is a unanimous retreat to observe.
The cryptocurrency market is also not to be outdone, with Bitcoin hovering around 104,000 and Ethereum oscillating around 2,500 for six consecutive weeks. Looking at Coinglass's Bitcoin liquidation map, short-term high-leverage contracts are also betting on the range between 103,000 and 106,000. If there is no major news to guide the direction before the weekend, it is highly likely that market makers will focus on liquidating contracts at these two price points and oscillating up and down. If the situation in the Middle East deteriorates, Bitcoin may have the opportunity to test 100,000 again.
Currently, both sides in the Middle East are still maintaining mutual airstrikes, and everyone is waiting for the United States to clarify its stance. According to news from the White House last night, Trump will decide within the next two weeks whether to personally engage in the war. After Trump's meetings with the National Security Council over the past two days, he has not made a public statement. The market speculates that the U.S. is inclined to participate in the war, so the earliest news will likely be released after the U.S. stock market closes on Friday to avoid a stock market crash, while also giving the market enough time to prepare for risk management. Therefore, when the traditional stock market is closed for the weekend, the cryptocurrency market must be especially cautious.
According to Glassnode data, on Monday, 959 BTC were transferred to exchanges at a loss, and this number soared to 16,700 BTC by Wednesday. Meanwhile, the BTC price fell from 106,500 to 103,500. This series of activities reflects a common behavioral pattern: STH (commonly known as 'weak hands') often panic sell during price declines, usually to cut losses.
This selling behavior indicates that there is increased activity among the STH group during market adjustments. When 'weak hands' exit their positions, these tokens are typically transferred to long-term holders (LTH) — also known as 'strong hands' — thereby helping to stabilize the market and create a more sustainable price foundation.
It is noteworthy that the total supply held by STH groups is on a downward trend, especially after a significant price drop. The selling pressure from weak positions is gradually weakening, bringing about accumulation opportunities, which may signal that a price bottom is forming.
The net position change chart between STH and LTH provides further insights, showing that STH's selling activity has been strong over the past month. Notably, most of the selling has been absorbed by LTH — which may be a key factor in helping BTC maintain above 100,000.
Bitcoin is in a 'blind spot', needing new purchasing power.
Bitcoin is currently in a 'blind spot' for trading. Data shows that since June, the incremental spot trading volume has been negative, indicating that although prices have slightly rebounded due to weak purchasing power, selling pressure still exists. While bearish pressure is gradually easing, it still suggests that the current pullback may persist for a while before a significant breakout occurs — this depends on the return of demand.
Considering that a short-term pullback may occur before a recovery, the on-chain price of Bitcoin has a support level between 97,000 and 94,000 for short-term holders.
Everyone is waiting for the U.S. stance. If the U.S. truly participates in the war, then it is certain that it will need to test below 100,000 again. Those trading contracts should hedge their risks, while those in spot trading should remember: a sudden drop is a good opportunity, and the continuous buying from large companies is the best example.