Ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the next rate decision scheduled for Wednesday, the market began to reduce risk, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping to $103,300.

This adjustment follows a bearish weekly chart, indicating a trend reversal, while geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, have intensified risk aversion.

The decline in Bitcoin's price is not entirely influenced by the macro environment. This drop coincides with seasonal weakness and a slowdown in on-chain network growth, indicating that spot demand has cooled.

On that day, over $434 million in BTC futures were liquidated, highlighting that the current trend is primarily driven by leverage, with cautious traders opting to reduce positions rather than open new ones.

Nevertheless, the premium Bitcoin index on Coinbase (which compares BTC prices on Coinbase and Binance platforms) remained positive for most of June, indicating stable spot demand from U.S. investors. However, due to general market caution, this demand has limited impact on prices.

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Further pressure comes from 'half-cycle holders' (those holding for 6 to 12 months) who realized profits of $904 million on Monday.

This group accounts for 83% of all realized profits, marking a significant change compared to long-term holders or those holding assets for over 12 months who previously led profit-taking.

This change indicates a shift in market dynamics, with more passive participants realizing profits as BTC reaches recent highs.

However, the behavior of long-term investors suggests an optimistic outlook. Long-term holders (LTH) are still avoiding large expenditures, which has historically been a bullish signal.

A healthy MVRV Z ratio indicates that BTC is still undervalued, while positive Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) suggests selective profit-taking rather than panic selling.

Similar setups in previous cycles have generated increases of 18-25% within 6-8 weeks, indicating a potential price target of $130,000 by the end of the third quarter.

Bitcoin could bottom out around $102,000.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin may be approaching a short-term bottom between $102,000 and $104,000, where a large amount of liquidity and orders converge.

The Bollinger Bands are another reason for the reversal of gold prices near $102,000. As shown, due to the dynamic resistance around $106,000 near the middle band, as well as the consolidation in early June, a technical pullback may occur near $102,000.

The Bollinger Bands are also narrowing, indicating an impending change, while the middle band (near $106,000) serves as dynamic resistance.

A successful rebound and closing above $106,748 may confirm a bullish reversal, with a target price of $112,000. Conversely, falling below $100,000 may invalidate the above setup, with a target price of $98,000.

The key support level at $98,300 allows short-term holders (STH) to take profits at this level. Falling below this level may lead the structure into a deeper correction.

As long as Bitcoin remains above the support level, we can still consider the market bullish. Only if Bitcoin falls below $98,000 will the situation change, which could trigger a deeper decline.

Today's fear index is 52, shifting to a neutral state.

Originally, the situation with Iran had no impact on the market, so it began to gradually warm up. However, it couldn't hold for a day and was brought down by a statement from Trump. Whether the U.S. goes to war directly affects the rise and fall; Trump's statement yesterday about 'actively considering going to war' caused Bitcoin to drop below $104,000. If the U.S. gets involved, the nature of the market will change, and Bitcoin is likely to fall below $100,000.

Tonight, there is also a result from the Federal Reserve meeting. If Powell speaks hawkishly and continues to maintain the short-term interest rates, it will inevitably accelerate this downward trend. Currently, the conflict may push oil prices higher again, increasing inflation risks, giving Powell more reasons to maintain a wait-and-see stance, so the short-term market's bearish factors have not yet been eliminated.

However, the spot market is a rare opportunity to pick up chips; during discounts at 618, prioritize DEFI for altcoins.