Ethereum $ETH has seen continuous capital inflow in the last month, but the price hasn't changed at all. Why is that? Many people think that 'ETF capital inflow means institutions are buying up', but this logic is not quite right. Anyone can buy ETFs; retail investors, arbitrageurs, and market makers are all participating. The inflow data you see might just be retail investors following the trend, which has nothing to do with 'smart money'.
Just like large institutions such as BlackRock, they might have already accumulated Ethereum at a low price and are now transferring the coins to the ETF custody address. It looks like large capital is suddenly entering the market on-chain, but they have actually completed their accumulation earlier. This kind of 'first stockpiling and then transferring' operation is deliberately making you think that now is a good time to enter the market, and they might be waiting for you to take over.
Real institutional accumulation is done quietly, through over-the-counter trading to get their hands on the goods, and sometimes they will open more short positions in the contract market while buying in the spot market to create a false impression of 'institutional entry', when in fact they might be offloading. Some retail investors hold a bunch of altcoins, and to hedge against risk, they short ETH fearing a steep decline. As a result, ETH does not drop as expected, the altcoins crash first, and in the end, they lose money on both sides, turning the supposed 'hedge' into a 'double loss'.
To put it simply:
1. ETF capital inflow is not necessarily institutional operation; retail investors can also create a 'net inflow' scenario;
2. Institutions might have finished accumulating goods at lower prices long ago, and now consolidating coins is to mislead retail investors;
3. A sudden large inflow one day might be a unified transfer of coins previously bought, not a temporary accumulation;
4. Sometimes, net inflow might actually be institutions engaging in reverse hedging tactics;
5. Using shorting ETH to hedge against altcoin risk usually just causes unnecessary turmoil, easily leading to losses on both sides.
So it's perfectly normal for ETH's 'ETF capital inflow, price not rising' situation; the market signals are inherently chaotic. However, I believe that continuous capital inflow will eventually lead to a qualitative change, and if it hasn't risen in a month, just wait for two or three months; at least sustained net inflow from ETFs is a positive signal, so be patient and wait.
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