So far in this cycle:
- Capital withdrawals have been capped at 25-30%
- Volatility decreased by more than 50% compared to 2021
- ETF and treasury demand dominate
- Stair-step support at $20,000, $40,000, $60,000, $95,000
- Still no blow-off top
It's calmer. Stronger. Slower.
Brad Mills calls it the Saylor Cycle-
An era of institutions, where capital with discipline continuously absorbs floating money.
Model: quarterly rebalancing, not a retail frenzy.
Silent bidding. No sell button.
Bitcoin functions as a scarce strategic asset.
Data supports this:
- MVRV oscillates between 2-3 (not too euphoric)
- Long-term holders are unfazed at $60,000, $90,000, or even $110,000
- Volatility has compressed quarterly
Hot money is leaving. Strong hands remain.
Joe Carlasare has captured the emotional shift:
"We can bore ourselves with a million dollars. No holy candles. No panic. Just a slow, steady escalation of institutions."
This is not a forecast that everyone agrees on-
But it reflects how this cycle feels for many.
All of these things repeat super theory
2021 cycle:
That Bitcoin can decouple from retail reflexes and the boom-bust collapse.
But it hasn't held up.
The cycle ends in pain: excessive leverage, FTX, rising interest rates... and a 77% drop.
Reality has reaffirmed itself quickly.
That doesn't make today's theory wrong.
It only means we should be humble.
Perhaps we are evolving towards slower, more sustainable adoption.
Perhaps we still have an excited peak (and painful correction) ahead.
History doesn't always repeat itself. But it often rhymes ... until it doesn't anymore. So how should you react? Shrink. The fiat monetary system operates on debt, dilution, and recession. Inflation is not a glitch, but a pattern. Bitcoin was built to escape it. Focus on signals rather than noise. Accumulate purposefully. Trust beats predictions.#BTC #ETH