The current mainstream altcoin market is trapped in a double bind: prices have fallen back to the 2022 bear market lows, and exchange trading volumes have shrunk by over 60%, making it difficult for even Bitcoin's safe-haven aura to uplift market sentiment. Behind this gloom is a triple deadlock:

• The funding stagnation dilemma: institutions are shifting towards Bitcoin spot ETFs and stablecoin arbitrage, causing the total value locked (TVL) in altcoin liquidity pools to decrease by 45% month-on-month, while market makers hoard coins but lack the drive to push prices up.

• Retail confidence collapse: There have been no hundredfold coins born for three consecutive months, and chasing highs and selling lows has led to an average account return of -32%, with the psychological shadow of "buying whatever is losing" spreading.

• Narrative vacuum crisis: New concepts like Layer 2 scaling and inscription economy have not met expectations, leading the market into a vicious cycle of "hoarding coins waiting for a bull — coin prices do not rise — selling off to exit."

On-chain data shows that the NVT ratio of mainstream altcoins like ETH and SOL has soared to historic highs, with market cap growth severely diverging from actual trading volume. When even the speculative space for 'betting on a rebound' disappears, altcoins will find it difficult to escape the embarrassing situation of being in a "valuation pit," even if Bitcoin stabilizes at $100,000.

Market warning: Without new narratives injected or favorable policy stimuli, altcoins may enter a "liquidity trap," and investors should be wary of the risk of emotional sell-offs.