Bitcoin: $105,000 is the line of life and death for bulls and bears; breaking this level may lead to a drop towards the $100,000 level
Bitcoin's price recently fell below the key area of $106,000 and is currently consolidating below $105,000, with $104,800 becoming the main resistance level in hourly trading.
From a technical perspective, BTC rebounded slightly after testing the $103,500 support but failed to recover the $105,500 resistance level; if it cannot break above $106,200 subsequently, it may open a new round of decline.
• Key support level: $103,500 (50-hour moving average), if broken, it may drop to $102,500 - $101,200, with the $100,000 integer level being the last line of defense;
• Resistance levels: $105,000 is under short-term pressure, $106,200 is a key mid-term resistance, and if broken, it is expected to challenge $108,800;
• Indicator signals: Bearish momentum on the hourly MACD is weakening, RSI hovers around 50, with a fierce struggle between bulls and bears.
Ethereum: $2500 consolidation, AI models indicate three potential trends
Ethereum is currently fluctuating in the $2500 range; after analyzing 42 real-time indicators, the ChatGPT O3 Pro model reveals a complex situation under short-term consolidation:
Technical analysis: Short-term pressure but bullish in the medium to long term
ETH is currently fluctuating in the range of $2485-$2557, with the 20-day moving average ($2557) constituting short-term resistance and the 50-day moving average ($2438) providing support.
Although MACD shows slight bearishness and RSI is close to the neutral level of 48, the price continues to stand above the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, suggesting that the medium to long-term upward trend remains unchanged.
On-chain data: Whale accumulation and ecosystem activity support
• Whale movements: The holdings of large whales have reached a new high since 2017, with 1% of circulating ETH locked in layer two networks for staking and DeFi;
• Ecosystem health: The supply of stablecoins is increasing, layer two network usage is surging, and the EIP-1559 burn mechanism continues to be deflationary;
• Liquidity: Market capitalization of $302 billion, daily trading volume of $15 billion, with concentrated buying in the $2480-$2500 range.
Forecast of three major scenarios for the next three months
1. Range-bound consolidation (basic scenario): In the absence of major catalysts, ETH may continue to consolidate between $2400 and $2600, and traders can buy low and sell high between support and resistance levels;
2. Bullish breakout (bull market scenario): If layer two activity surges or macro liquidity improves, breaking above $2557 may lead to a surge towards $2800, and even above $3000;
3. Deep correction (bear market scenario): If regulatory crackdowns or market panic occur, breaking below $2438 may lead to a drop towards $2200-$2300, but long-term support remains solid.
Retail operation recommendations
• Bitcoin: Be cautious about going long below $105,000; if it breaks above $106,200, it can chase the rise; stop loss below $103,500;
• Ethereum: Light positions can be established near $2485, add more when recovering $2557, and pay attention to catalysts such as layer two network upgrades;
• Risk warning: Cryptocurrency volatility is increasing, it is recommended to participate with no more than 5% of idle funds to avoid leveraged trading.