Market Observation on June 19
Fundamental Analysis:
Federal Reserve Policy Trends: The latest dot plot conveys core information, and Powell's key statements at the press conference (see attached chart interpretation) need to be closely monitored for their impact on the crypto asset market. The overall tone is hawkish, and the market still has differing expectations about the timing of interest rate cuts.
Geopolitical Risks Rising: The military confrontation between Israel and Iran has significantly escalated, with regional proxy armed forces entering a state of readiness, and nuclear deterrence factors emerging, threatening the stability of international energy supply. Although it has not escalated into a full-scale war, the conflict is highly likely to enter a stage of 'high-intensity hybrid conflict,' with risk premiums continuing to rise.
Technical Analysis:
BTC:
Daily Level: Yesterday, the price repeatedly found support and rebounded near $1035, with highs touching the 7-day moving average. Overall, it shows a fluctuating downward trend, with rebound highs gradually declining. Notably, the support effectiveness in the $103 range has been significant over the past month, with multiple dips not breaking through. This level is crucial for defense, and if it is effectively lost at the daily level, the key support below will shift down to the $95 area.
4-Hour Level: In the past 24 hours, the market has fluctuated narrowly in the $1055-$1035 range, accompanied by shrinking trading volume, indicating the market is in a wait-and-see or energy accumulation phase. A significant breakout from this range is needed to guide the direction of a new trend.
Intraday Strategy: Key resistance above focuses on the $1055-$1065 range; key support below focuses on the $1035-$1025 range.
ETH:
Daily Level: The price is maintaining above the lower blue upward trend line. The recent consolidation is gradually repairing the technical gap formed by the rapid rise in early May. The support at $2480 has remained effective over the past month. If it can effectively break through the $2650-$2680 resistance zone with volume, it is expected to initiate a new upward trend, targeting the $3050 area. Recent movements show a pattern of volume decline after a drop, reflecting strong capital wait-and-see sentiment, with weak willingness for bulls to enter. If the daily level effectively breaks below $2480 with volume, short-term downward momentum will increase, with effective support expected around the $2280-$2310 area.
Intraday Strategy: Key pressure above focuses on the $2540-$2570 range; key support below focuses on the $2480-$2450 range.
Altcoins:
Today, the altcoin market generally showed a technical rebound. Evaluating its sustainability requires comprehensive consideration of the following dimensions:
Strength Signals: 1) The sector rotates in an orderly manner, with leading projects breaking through key resistance levels first; 2) Rebound accompanied by significantly increased daily trading volume (multiple levels) is a true signal of buyer intervention; 3) Stablecoin trading pairs against mainstream coins show a continuous net buying state; 4) Macroeconomic environment support (such as falling U.S. Treasury yields, easing CPI data, and no new negative crypto regulations).
Current Viewpoint (Tendency for Rebound, Not Reversal): First, the technical structure of mainstream coins (BTC/ETH) has not fundamentally changed, and they remain in a descending channel or mid-range consolidation; Second, there is insufficient trading volume, and today's rebound generally lacks volume support, showing no signs of large-scale capital entering; Third, the signals released by the Federal Reserve early in the morning were more hawkish than the market expected, and there remains uncertainty about the timing of interest rate cuts; Fourth, the U.S. SEC continues to delay approval decisions for multiple spot ETFs; Fifth, recent projects such as ZRO and ZK face high proportions of unlocking selling pressure.
Strategy Suggestions: In the absence of confirmation of the above key buying signals, maintaining a wait-and-see approach with spot positions is a more rational choice. A true trend upward starting point requires at least observing the stabilization of mainstream coin prices, signs of on-chain capital inflow, effective restoration of market confidence, and reinforcement of favorable macro expectations.
Risk Warning: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment decisions should be made with caution. The above is merely personal market observation and analysis, and does not constitute any investment advice, but is for reference in discussions.