Fundamentals:
1. Three major events in the Iran-Israel conflict: Iran launched long-range heavy missiles at Israel; Trump confirmed a declaration of war against Iran; missiles and drones launched by Iran directly hit key targets in Israel, resulting in multiple casualties. The geopolitical conflict has escalated again, but fortunately, Trump has delayed the decision to strike Iran by two weeks, somewhat alleviating concerns about the escalation of the situation.
2. Bitcoin's on-chain trading volume has hit an 18-month low, the Runes and Ordinals craze has faded, and the crypto market has entered a seasonal slump.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: From the daily chart, it is currently at the end of a 'converging triangle.' The support at the 103 level has been tested multiple times as an effective breakdown, indicating that buying interest remains active. From the recent market environment, negative factors (increased geopolitical conflicts + the U.S. SEC delaying the approval of spot ETFs) dominate, making a downward wedge likely. If the 103 support is broken, the 95 level, as the starting point of the previous rise, will become the next major defense zone. The daily chart has shown a narrow range of low-volume fluctuations in recent days, with trading volume significantly shrinking, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. On the 4-hour chart, the price has been fluctuating in the 1035-1055 range in recent days. For intraday trading, focus on the pressure at the 1055-1065 position for shorting opportunities, and watch for rebound signals at the support level of 1035-1025.
ETH: The overall trend on the daily chart shows that the K-line is closely following the 7-day moving average downward, with the support at the 2480 level being prominent as the low point over the past month. Structurally, it is at the end of a converging triangle, and the price is about to touch the lower blue trend line support level, entering a 'critical point' in technical analysis. In terms of volume structure, the past ten days have exhibited an overall shrinking oscillation structure, with rising volume low and falling volume high, indicating insufficient bullish confidence and more active bearish sentiment. On the 4-hour chart, it is fluctuating in the 2480-2540 range, with little room for further adjustment. The market is about to make a choice, and the defense at the 2480 level is precarious. For intraday trading, focus on the pressure at the 2540-2570 position above, and watch for support at the 2480-2450 position below.
Altcoins: Yesterday, altcoins experienced a significant rebound overall, and a group of friends began to FOMO. A detailed summary and analysis of the strong signals in the altcoin market was provided yesterday, clearly stating that the current market should still maintain a wait-and-see stance. After the rebound, altcoins fell back, basically returning to the morning's rebound space. It is worth noting that the implementation of the CNH stablecoin will promote the development of the RWA track. Especially its recent linkage with U.S. Treasury bonds, which has gained traction, with key coins in the RWA track such as ONDO, MKR, AAVE being closely monitored.
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; proceed with caution. This is a personal opinion and not a suggestion; for sharing purposes only.