In the early hours of today, the Federal Reserve announced: interest rates remain unchanged. This marks their fourth consecutive 'inaction'. On the surface, everything seems normal, but beneath the surface, the confrontation between Trump and Fed Chairman Powell is almost sparking.
1. Trump is pressuring step by step, and Powell rarely fights back.
In the past six months, Trump has almost publicly called for: 'Quickly lower the interest rates!' Just last week, he even directly demanded 'a full percentage point drop'. But Powell did not remain silent this time; he pointed out for the first time: new tariffs are the 'real culprit' behind rising prices, and ordinary families will ultimately pay the price.
I carefully looked at the data: in May, U.S. tariff revenue soared to $23 billion. Prices for computers, electronics, and other daily necessities are already rising. Powell clearly stated: 'This money will eventually be passed on to consumers' — this is almost a direct questioning of Trump's policy.
Xiao Chen's personal opinion: This high-level game of chess is unlikely to see a clear winner in the short term, but Powell's firm stance has given me more confidence in the independence of economic policy.
2. The July tariff deadline is approaching, and Goldman Sachs suddenly sends a 'reassurance'.
Everyone is nervously watching July 9 — the effective date of the 'reciprocal tariff' set by Trump. But Goldman Sachs chief economist Hatzius has just released a forecast: Trump will most likely delay! Negotiations will continue, and new taxes will not be imposed immediately.
However, he also reminded: certain industries can't escape. Semiconductors, mobile phones, pharmaceuticals, copper products, etc., may be subjected to an additional 25% tariff. Including the tariff increases already in place this year, the overall tax rate may rise by another 5%.
My judgment: a full-scale trade war will not break out in the short term, but local industry shocks are bound to occur. Ordinary people should focus on price fluctuations in electronic and pharmaceutical products.
3. The wallets of ordinary people are facing triple tests.
Combining the latest report from the Federal Reserve, I believe ordinary people will feel the following:
Prices are rising again: tariffs combined with the summer consumption season may make daily necessities and gasoline more expensive.
Employment pressure is increasing: companies are slowing down hiring due to rising costs, and the unemployment rate may rise from 4.2% to 4.5%.
Loan burdens continue: mortgage and auto loan rates are unlikely to decrease temporarily, and borrowing costs remain high.
Powell frankly said: 'We need more time to observe' — this translates to: ordinary families have to endure a little longer.
4. Opportunities are hidden within crises! My three positive forecasts.
Although challenges are present, I still see hope:
The 'ballast' role of gold has become prominent.
Central banks around the world have increased their gold holdings for seven consecutive months (China is also quietly buying). History proves that whenever inflation is high and the situation is unstable, gold can always stabilize asset values. Ordinary people can pay attention to gold ETFs or accumulate gold to hedge against price risks.
The long-term value of digital currencies is clearer.
Although Powell did not directly mention cryptocurrencies, he repeatedly emphasized that 'tariffs may lead to persistent inflation.' The original intention of Bitcoin's design is to combat currency devaluation—when the purchasing power of the dollar declines, the anti-inflation properties of digital currencies will be reassessed.
Global capital is looking for new directions.
Europe and India have taken the lead in cutting interest rates, and the trend of capital flowing out of the U.S. is intensifying. Goldman Sachs' report indicates that investors' interest in euro assets is rising. This means that those who diversify their asset allocations will hold the initiative.
Finally, let me say a few heartfelt words.
The struggle between Trump and Powell will continue, and whether the July tariffs are delayed still holds uncertainty. But the more turbulent the moment, the clearer the essence must be seen:
The Federal Reserve's insistence on not hastily lowering interest rates precisely shows that they care about the long-term health of the economy.
Global capital flows like water; when one dam is blocked, new outlets will emerge.
The risk tolerance of ordinary people always depends on the breadth of their understanding — seeing what is happening in the world is more important than predicting tomorrow's rise and fall.
Be patient, stay awake. Click the like button and follow.
Xiao Chen is waiting for the wind to come with you.#鲍威尔发言 $BTC
